{"abstention_reason":null,"arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","candidate_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","cell_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__sport_science","decision":"PROPOSAL","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","proposal":{"actors":["Athletes training in hot conditions","Coaches responsible for session design","Exercise physiologists measuring thermal balance","Athletic trainers or physicians responsible for heat-safety decisions","Equipment staff who condition and inspect phase-change modules"],"affected_objective":"Keep excess whole-body heat stored during repeated exercise within locally approved physiological and medical limits while preserving planned work quality, hydration access, and independent heat-illness stop criteria.","arm":"SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","authority_safety":{"authorized_first_step":"The lead exercise physiologist may reconstruct heat-storage trajectories from already authorized measurements and bench-test the vest on a thermal manikin or calorimetric rig. No athlete exposure is authorized until medical review confirms skin-safety, sanitation, fit, monitoring, and stop criteria.","decision_authority":"The supervising physician or athletic trainer controls medical eligibility and stopping; the lead exercise physiologist controls the experimental protocol; coaches control training only within those limits and may not override a medical halt.","excluded_actions":["Using cooling to extend exercise beyond the approved workload or environmental limits","Replacing hydration, acclimatization, shaded recovery, emergency planning, or medical observation with the vest","Applying modules at temperatures or durations outside the medically approved range","Continuing exposure after symptoms or an established physiological stop criterion appears","Inferring athlete toughness, selection value, or discipline from heat-storage measurements","Allowing software alerts or coaches to override clinical judgment"],"halt_rollback":"Stop immediately for discomfort, skin injury, abnormal symptoms, sensor failure affecting safety monitoring, an established physiological stop criterion, or evidence that the carrier impedes evaporation and increases heat storage. Remove the vest, follow the existing heat-response protocol, quarantine the modules, and revert to standard recovery conditions."},"baseline":"Compare the physical intervention with the same approved exercise and recovery protocol using standard shaded rest and hydration plus a mass- and fit-matched open carrier containing thermally neutral inserts. Use a randomized supervised crossover where permitted; preserve identical work, rest, clothing, environmental exposure, and medical stopping rules.","candidate_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__sport_science__SUBSTRATE_DIVERSE_P2","causal_chain":["Muscular metabolism and environmental heat transfer add heat to the athlete during each work interval.","Evaporation, convection, radiation, respiration, and conduction remove heat, but during hot repeated exercise their combined rate can remain below heat inflow.","The positive net heat flow accumulates as excess whole-body heat across successive work-rest cycles even if the instantaneous metabolic rate falls during breaks.","An open-mesh vest containing preconditioned phase-change panels contacts selected torso regions during existing recovery intervals.","Heat flows conductively from the athlete into the panels and is absorbed as latent heat while the material changes phase, increasing physical heat outflow from the athlete without requiring an algorithm or powered controller.","Panel calorimetry and athlete thermal measurements reconcile the reduction in stored heat against the panels' measured heat uptake and other estimated loss paths.","Modules are removed or exchanged before their latent capacity is exhausted, preventing a saturated heat sink from being mistaken for continuing clearance.","Repeated measurements test whether the intervention lowers the heat-stock trajectory without merely cooling skin transiently, suppressing evaporation, or delaying a rebound from deeper tissues."],"cell_id":"stock_flow_accumulation_control__sport_science","consequence":"If excess body heat persists across repeated bouts, thermal strain can rise despite apparently adequate breaks, degrading exercise capacity and increasing the likelihood that an athlete reaches established heat-safety stopping criteria.","diversity_from_prior_proposals":"P1 governs a digital-workflow stock of unvalidated athlete-session records through reconciliation and work routing. This proposal governs a physiological energy stock—excess whole-body heat—through passive latent-heat absorption by physical material. Its problem, intervention, actors, measurements, and thermal causal path are independent of record validation.","experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp13_second_slot_policy60_20260806","intervention":"Install a passive phase-change heat buffer for existing recovery intervals. Define the controlled stock as estimated excess whole-body sensible heat above each athlete's stable pre-exercise reference, expressed in kilojoules and bounded at the athlete's body. Estimate it at five-minute and work-rest boundaries from medically approved core and skin-temperature measurements, body mass, and a prespecified whole-body heat-capacity model. Separately estimate inflows from metabolic heat production and environmental gain and outflows through external work, evaporation, convection, radiation, respiration, and conduction. Use an open-mesh torso carrier holding sealed, preconditioned phase-change panels whose transition temperature, latent capacity, mass, surface temperature, and leakage integrity have been bench verified. Apply it only during already scheduled recovery periods. Treat conductive heat captured by the panels as an added outflow, measure panel heat uptake calorimetrically, and reconcile observed stock change against net flows with uncertainty retained as a residual. Set the target band and absolute stop ceiling through the supervising clinician; add a warning when estimated stock continues rising across two work-rest cycles and a capacity warning when remaining latent capacity is insufficient for the projected next cycle. Exchange panels before saturation. Monitor later rebound, skin condition, evaporation, and post-session heat clearance so apparent improvement cannot be attributed solely to surface cooling or delayed accumulation.","mechanism_mapping":[{"counterfactual_removal":"Without a stock-flow reconciliation, a cooler skin reading could be misinterpreted as removal of accumulated whole-body heat.","mechanism_slug":"stock_flow_balance_reconciliation","role":"Compares change in estimated kilojoules of stored heat with metabolic and environmental inflows, ordinary heat losses, panel heat uptake, and an explicit uncertainty residual."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without the physical conductive path into a latent-heat sink, the vest has no essential means to change the athlete's heat balance.","mechanism_slug":"net_flow_lever_adjustment","role":"The preconditioned panels increase heat outflow from the athlete through conduction and latent heat absorption during recovery."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without finite latent capacity, the material would not buffer heat gain during high-load intervals; without tracking saturation, it could become an insulating burden.","mechanism_slug":"stock_level_buffering","role":"A quantified phase-change reserve temporarily accepts thermal energy and is exchanged before its heat-absorption capacity is exhausted."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without capacity-based replacement, saturated panels would remain in place while the physiological stock resumed accumulating.","mechanism_slug":"clearance_turnover_tuning","role":"Panel exchange timing is tied to measured remaining thermal capacity rather than appearance or elapsed time alone."},{"counterfactual_removal":"Without delayed follow-up, transient surface cooling could conceal continued transfer from deeper tissues or post-removal rebound.","mechanism_slug":"delay_compensated_control","role":"Core, skin, and estimated heat-stock trajectories are followed through later recovery to distinguish immediate surface effects from sustained clearance."}],"nearest_rivals":["A fan or cold-air station that may increase convective or evaporative loss but does not quantify the accumulated heat stock or finite cooling capacity","A core-temperature alert that measures a threshold but supplies no physical heat-removal mechanism","A longer-rest or reduced-work rule whose essential effect comes from scheduling rather than a material heat sink","A cooling garment controlled by an algorithm or powered circulation system whose essential effect depends on digital control","A one-time post-session ice application that does not govern accumulation across repeated work-rest cycles"],"negative_tests":{"intervention_falsifier":"The intervention is falsified if bench testing confirms usable latent capacity but a medically supervised crossover shows no reduction beyond measurement uncertainty in peak stored heat, net accumulation per cycle, or subsequent clearance relative to the matched carrier—or if any apparent reduction is explained by lower work, extra rest, greater fluid intake, measurement bias, or delayed rebound.","problem_falsifier":"The problem is falsified if baseline reconciliation shows that stored heat does not persist across work-rest cycles, remains within the locally approved band, and reliably clears during existing recovery under the intended environmental and workload conditions.","risks":["The carrier may obstruct evaporation and increase rather than decrease net heat storage.","Panels may saturate earlier than expected and become insulating mass.","Excessively cold or poorly fitted panels may cause discomfort, skin injury, or altered movement.","Surface cooling may mask symptoms or create false reassurance while deeper-body heat remains elevated.","Added garment mass may alter workload and confound the comparison.","Core-temperature or heat-storage estimation uncertainty may exceed the expected intervention effect.","Module leakage, cleaning failures, or degraded phase-change material may create equipment hazards.","Cooling may be misused to justify longer or harder exposure."],"strongest_counterevidence":"Direct or well-calibrated calorimetry showing that athletes already reach near-zero or negative net heat balance during existing breaks—and that the panels mostly replace evaporation rather than increase total heat loss—would undercut both the accumulation problem and the proposed mechanism."},"next_evidence_step":"Using a heated sweating manikin or calorimetric torso, test the complete open-mesh carrier and conditioned panels against the matched neutral carrier under the intended air temperature, humidity, and airflow. Measure conductive heat uptake, latent-capacity exhaustion, surface-temperature range, evaporation interference, leakage, and residual heat after removal. In parallel, reconstruct stock-flow balance for existing authorized athlete measurements to determine whether heat persists across cycles. Present both falsifier analyses for clinical approval before any supervised crossover.","observable_state":"The stock S(t) is excess whole-body sensible heat above an athlete-specific stable pre-exercise reference, in kilojoules, within the athlete boundary. A prespecified model estimates S from body mass and medically approved core and weighted skin-temperature measurements at baseline, every five minutes, each work-rest boundary, and recovery. Estimated metabolic heat and environmental gain are inflows; external mechanical work, evaporation, convection, radiation, respiration, and conduction into the panels are outflows. Panel temperature and bench-derived enthalpy curves estimate captured heat and remaining latent capacity. Reconciliation applies S(t2)=S(t1)+metabolic heat+environmental gain-external work-evaporative loss-convective loss-radiative loss-respiratory loss-panel heat uptake, retaining unexplained difference and measurement uncertainty as residuals.","prior_art_status":"UNSEARCHED","problem":"During repeated exercise in hot conditions, a sport program may judge thermal strain from current workload, isolated temperature readings, or the length of each break while overlooking excess whole-body heat carried from earlier bouts. When metabolic and environmental heat inflow repeatedly exceeds evaporation, convection, radiation, respiration, and conduction, stored heat can climb across work-rest cycles even after instantaneous workload falls. Existing recovery may therefore look adequate while the accumulated thermal-energy stock continues toward an established safety ceiling.","proposal_index":2,"remaining_contrastive_claim":"Unlike temperature alerts, scheduling rules, or powered feedback systems, this opportunity adds value only if a persistent whole-body heat stock can be reconciled to net thermal flows and materially reduced by the panels' independently measured latent heat uptake without displacing evaporation or delaying the burden.","revision_record":{"claim_changes":[],"conceptual_changes":[],"evidence_changes":[],"operational_changes":[],"parent_version":null,"progress_targets_addressed":[]},"schema_version":1,"structural_mapping":[{"archetype_element":"Accumulated stock, unit, boundary, owner, measurement source, and cadence","domain_realization":"Excess whole-body sensible heat in kilojoules above an athlete-specific reference, bounded at the athlete, measured from approved core and skin-temperature instruments, owned analytically by the lead exercise physiologist, and reviewed every five minutes and at work-rest transitions."},{"archetype_element":"Distinct inflow, outflow, clearance, conversion, and transfer paths","domain_realization":"Metabolic production and environmental gain enter; external work, evaporation, convection, radiation, respiration, and conduction exit; heat transfers from deeper tissues toward skin and from skin into phase-change panels."},{"archetype_element":"Net-flow balance and residual reconciliation","domain_realization":"Observed change in estimated stored heat is compared with integrated heat inflows and losses, including independently characterized panel uptake; model and sensor mismatch remains an explicit residual."},{"archetype_element":"Target band, warning threshold, capacity limit, and ceiling","domain_realization":"A clinician approves the athlete-specific target band and absolute stop ceiling; continued accumulation across two cycles triggers warning, and insufficient remaining panel latent capacity triggers removal or exchange."},{"archetype_element":"Physical lever on net flow and buffering capacity","domain_realization":"Sealed phase-change panels increase conductive heat removal and provide a finite latent-energy buffer without changing the exercise prescription."},{"archetype_element":"Delay, saturation, feedback, and displacement checks","domain_realization":"Monitoring covers panel saturation, evaporation interference, deep-to-surface heat transfer, post-removal rebound, garment-induced workload, and recovery after the session."},{"archetype_element":"Monitoring, retirement, and retuning","domain_realization":"The vest is withdrawn if it raises heat storage, impairs evaporation, harms skin, or fails reconciliation; panel mass, placement, conditioning, and exchange limits may be retuned only after bench and supervised evidence."}],"substrate_contract":{"counterfactual_independence":"If all software, algorithms, dashboards, alerts, and routing processes are removed, a correctly conditioned phase-change panel in safe thermal contact with the athlete still absorbs heat conductively through its material phase transition. Measurement and procedures verify and bound that effect but do not create it.","forbidden_channel_audit":"No governance rule, training change, incentive, database, model, or digital controller supplies the proposed heat removal. Scheduling is held constant, computation only estimates the stock, and clinical rules constrain use. The essential causal channel is physical heat transfer into finite latent-heat material.","primary_allowed_process":"PHYSICAL_MATERIAL"},"title":"Passive Phase-Change Buffer for Accumulated Athlete Heat","version":0},"schema_version":1}