{"cases":[{"alternative_route_blocks":[],"case_id":"E14A029__DIRECT","case_type":"DIRECT_POSITIVE","domain":"Banking regulation and capital requirements","intended_route_id":"B3","omitted_condition_id":null,"remedy_leakage_audit":"The statement presents the regulatory planning problem and resulting behavioral offsets without proposing changes to the rule, rollout, monitoring, or enforcement.","route_evidence":[{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c1","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Banks learn the surcharge formula and effective date nine months before implementation."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c2","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Banks can accelerate lending, transfer exposures, and change contract structures before the effective date."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c6","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Large institutions have specialized teams and infrastructure that reposition portfolios faster than supervisors revise classifications."}],"scenario_text":"A banking supervisor plans a capital surcharge intended to curb growth in high-risk commercial property lending. The final formula and its effective date will be published nine months before the first compliance calculation so banks can update their systems. The impact model assumes each institution will keep its current portfolio and origination pace until the surcharge begins, producing a sizable decline in risky loans afterward.\n\nSeveral banks are already preparing different responses. They can bring planned loans forward, sell exposures to affiliated funds, replace conventional loans with economically similar contracts classified elsewhere, or arrange transactions through entities outside the reporting perimeter. Large national banks employ regulatory-capital specialists, maintain ready-made securitization channels, and can alter product terms within weeks. Community banks have far fewer options and generally require months to revise lending operations. Supervisors, meanwhile, need a full rulemaking and data-review cycle before closing a newly identified classification gap. The concern is that much of the modeled reduction may appear as earlier issuance or relocation of exposure rather than a durable decline in the underlying activity.","scenario_title":"Capital Surcharge Forecast and Pre-Effective-Date Lending","vocabulary_separation_audit":"Uses banking-specific language about portfolios, securitization, classifications, and compliance calculations; it does not repeat supplied predicates or name the archetype."},{"alternative_route_blocks":[],"case_id":"E14A029__TRANSFER","case_type":"TRANSFER_POSITIVE","domain":"Electric-grid demand management for refrigerated warehouses","intended_route_id":"B3","omitted_condition_id":null,"remedy_leakage_audit":"The statement describes the operational concern without suggesting tariff redesign, control changes, concealment, or any other intervention.","route_evidence":[{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c1","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Warehouses receive next-day curtailment windows, and repeated timing makes likely events predictable."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c2","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Facilities can precool inventory and reschedule refrigeration tasks before the window, displacing rather than eliminating demand."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c6","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Large operators use forecasting and optimization systems to reposition load faster than the utility can revise dispatch rules."}],"scenario_text":"A regional utility is forecasting the effect of a summer program that sharply raises electricity charges for refrigerated warehouses during declared grid-stress windows. Participating facilities receive the next day's window by late afternoon, and declarations also tend to follow recognizable heat and load forecasts. The utility's projection treats each warehouse's refrigeration schedule before the window as unchanged and counts the expected drop during the expensive hours as genuine demand relief.\n\nCold-storage operators can instead lower room and product temperatures beforehand, advance ice making, or complete defrost cycles early, then allow temperatures to drift safely during the declared period. These moves preserve storage conditions while shifting a substantial portion of consumption to the hours immediately preceding the event. National logistics firms have energy-trading desks, site-level thermal models, and automated controls capable of reorganizing loads as soon as forecasts change. Independent warehouses generally react later and less precisely. The utility requires several weeks of engineering review to modify event definitions or baseline calculations, while the largest chains can update operating schedules overnight. Planners are therefore uncertain how much of the projected peak reduction will remain once operators prepare for each declaration.","scenario_title":"Cold-Storage Demand Forecast Under Announced Stress Windows","vocabulary_separation_audit":"The case shifts from finance to refrigeration operations and uses thermal storage, defrost, grid-load, and dispatch vocabulary without reproducing the supplied predicate wording."},{"alternative_route_blocks":[{"blocked_by_condition_id":"b004_a04_c3","condition_set_id":"B1","how_blocked":"The scenario expressly states that the load pattern is produced by identical deterministic controllers and thermal limits, not discretionary or strategically differentiated conduct."},{"blocked_by_condition_id":"b004_a04_c4","condition_set_id":"B2","how_blocked":"This is the first deployment, so no earlier announcement, delayed rollout, or repeated use has produced an observed shortfall."}],"case_id":"E14A029__NEAR_MISS","case_type":"ONE_LITERAL_NEAR_MISS","domain":"Electric-grid demand management for refrigerated warehouses","intended_route_id":"B3","omitted_condition_id":"b004_a04_c6","remedy_leakage_audit":"The statement contains diagnostic facts only and offers no recommendation about scheduling, controls, prices, baselines, or program design.","route_evidence":[{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c1","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"Every facility receives the curtailment timetable a day ahead."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c2","intended_status":"SATISFIED","scenario_evidence":"The common controller automatically precools and advances defrost cycles before each expensive interval."},{"condition_id":"b004_a04_c6","intended_status":"CONTRADICTED","scenario_evidence":"All sites have the same sealed controller and response speed, no advanced subgroup exists, and the utility can revise dispatch settings faster than facilities can change their equipment."}],"scenario_text":"A municipal utility is estimating the first-season effect of a new charge for refrigerated warehouses during scheduled evening grid-stress periods. Each facility receives the next day's timetable at 4 p.m. The engineering forecast assumes refrigeration demand will remain level before each costly interval and then fall during it.\n\nAll covered warehouses use the same sealed controller supplied under a municipal equipment contract. On receiving a timetable, the controller automatically precools goods and advances the next defrost cycle, allowing compressors to remain off longer during the designated hours. The resulting load profile follows fixed thermostat logic, identical temperature limits, and the thermal properties of the buildings; facility managers cannot select a different response. No warehouse has proprietary forecasting, adjustable software, specialized staff, or equipment that permits it to begin sooner or shift more consumption than another. The utility can revise dispatch parameters centrally within minutes, whereas a warehouse would need a contractor and hardware certification to alter its controller. Because this is the program's first deployment, there are no prior announced events or delayed launches from which to infer an observed forecasting shortfall.","scenario_title":"Uniform Cold-Storage Controllers Before a New Peak Charge","vocabulary_separation_audit":"Retains the transfer domain's technical difficulty while replacing heterogeneous optimization teams with uniform deterministic equipment; it avoids archetype terminology and supplied predicate phrasing."}],"experiment_id":"eoa_inverse_innovation_exp14_applicability_retrieval40_20260813","sample_id":"E14A029","schema_version":1}