{"candidates":[{"best_route_status":"CONTRADICTED","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01","confidence":0.86,"reason":"The launch outcome has not yet been observed, so the route's first required condition fails.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01R01L01","evidence":"The agency is deciding whether to launch; no realized mission outcome is described.","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01R01L02","evidence":"No gap between output and latent capacity or alternatives is stated.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01R01L03","evidence":"The 94 percent estimate is a forecast, but its possibility-envelope basis is not established.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01R01L04","evidence":"No single lumped deficit category is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC01R01L05","evidence":"Multiple potential points of realized-output loss are not 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repeatedly identify escalation of commitment and optimism bias in comparable go-or-delay decisions.","status":"SATISFIED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC03R01L03","evidence":"The standard 62-item packet records certifications and signatures but does not distinguish invested forecasters or examine expenditure effects.","status":"SATISFIED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC03R01L04","evidence":"Managers who defended overruns provide the opening reliability forecast, stress sunk investment, and board review does not interrupt those mechanisms.","status":"SATISFIED"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC03R01","route_status":"SATISFIED"}]},{"best_route_status":"INCOMPLETE","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC04","confidence":0.89,"reason":"The scenario establishes delay cost but not the remaining search, threshold, closure, or proxy-optimization conditions.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC04R01L01","evidence":"Expanding option comparison and 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stated.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC06R01","route_status":"INCOMPLETE"}]},{"best_route_status":"CONTRADICTED","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07","confidence":0.9,"reason":"A point success estimate is reported, but no decision-support interval or error band is used.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07R01L01","evidence":"The briefing reports a 94 percent point estimate, not an interval or error band.","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07R01L02","evidence":"The assumptions of any interval procedure are not described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07R01L03","evidence":"No small-sample, rare-outcome, skewness, tail, or heteroscedasticity evidence is stated.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07R01","route_status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC07R02L01","evidence":"The briefing reports a 94 percent point 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described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC09R01L03","evidence":"The launch opportunity expires, but a retreat reversibility horizon is not described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC09R01L04","evidence":"Managers emphasize that cancellation would waste nine years of investment, indicating sunk-cost resistance.","status":"SATISFIED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC09R01L05","evidence":"No staged withdrawal, salvage, transfer, or relocation option is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC09R01L06","evidence":"No required cross-system retreat coordination is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC09R01","route_status":"INCOMPLETE"}]},{"best_route_status":"INCOMPLETE","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10","confidence":0.94,"reason":"Schedule and budget problems are described, but an overloaded commitment system is not established.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L01","evidence":"No evidence states that new obligations outpace created or freed capacity.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L02","evidence":"No soft promises becoming urgent are described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L03","evidence":"No cross-actor promise and fulfillment-capacity arrangement is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L04","evidence":"Obligations exceeding credible completion capacity are not established.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L05","evidence":"No pattern of failing to cancel or rescope old commitments is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01L06","evidence":"No misattribution of commitment overload to execution failure is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC10R01","route_status":"INCOMPLETE"}]},{"best_route_status":"INCOMPLETE","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11","confidence":0.95,"reason":"The orbital window is time-sensitive, but no moving-target control loop or asynchronous adoption structure is described.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01L01","evidence":"No target is stated to change faster than the sensing-to-verification loop.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01L02","evidence":"No uncertain target-update timing, authority, provenance, or effective date is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01L03","evidence":"No calibrated rule is stated to have become stale through environmental movement.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01L04","evidence":"No persistent phase lag from finite sensing or actuation bandwidth is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01L05","evidence":"No dependent actors adopting objective versions at different cadences are described.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC11R01","route_status":"INCOMPLETE"}]},{"best_route_status":"INCOMPLETE","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC12","confidence":0.9,"reason":"A program estimate and anomalies are reported, but recurrent residual patterns or a validated-regime shift are not established.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC12R01L01","evidence":"The point estimate does not establish a reference explanation generating aligned case-, time-, or condition-level expectations.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC12R01L02","evidence":"No recurring signed or shaped errors beyond a stated uncertainty model are described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC12R01L03","evidence":"No extrapolation, distribution shift, measurement change, or process drift is stated.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC12R01","route_status":"INCOMPLETE"}]},{"best_route_status":"CONTRADICTED","candidate_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13","confidence":0.79,"reason":"The stated decision is whether to launch or postpone, not construction of a solution through incremental selections.","route_assessments":[{"condition_assessments":[{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13R01L01","evidence":"The scenario frames a go-or-delay launch decision rather than incremental construction from successive feasible choices.","status":"CONTRADICTED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13R01L02","evidence":"No sequence of next steps scored with immediately available information is described.","status":"UNKNOWN"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13R01L03","evidence":"Launching commits the spacecraft and science program for the next decade.","status":"SATISFIED"},{"condition_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13R01L04","evidence":"No evidence says local choices usually compose well.","status":"UNKNOWN"}],"route_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253ACC13R01","route_status":"CONTRADICTED"}]}],"opaque_case_id":"E14QFD3D5D9253AC"}