# L5 Invisible Commons — Coverage Audit (C-prime)

Designs: X = d18.md, Y = d22.md. Judged on RECOMMENDATION text only. [HARD] = #3, #4, #5, #6.

## Design X (d18)

| # | Component | Status | Note |
|---|-----------|--------|------|
| 1 | Resource boundary & shared-stock definition | COVERED | reserve, recharge zone, drawing farms, compaction threshold named as protected object |
| 2 | Access & use limits tied to capacity | COVERED | yearly total draw budget set below safe recharge estimate, split into per-farm shares |
| 3 | Hidden-state estimation [HARD] | COVERED | observation-well network reads actual level + rate of movement, not pump metering; budget recomputed against newest reading |
| 4 | Uncertainty carried with estimate [HARD] | COVERED | budget set below best estimate leaving headroom; pre-set tripwire bands tighten as estimate approaches danger |
| 5 | Irreversibility margin / option preservation [HARD] | COVERED | explicit governing rule: run to protect a margin above the danger line, never optimize to the edge |
| 6 | Monitoring of behavior [HARD] | COVERED | self-reported draw per farm backed by spot audits; reported draw on open ledger |
| 7 | Sanctions for over-extraction | COVERED | graduated: warning + share deduction, escalating, then suspension |
| 8 | Incentive alignment for competing actors | COVERED | per-farm shares, rule ownership, staying within share is rational, decades-long viability framing |
| 9 | Legitimacy basis for regional body | COVERED | farms co-set budget/shares, see same data, justified as keeping all in business |
| 10 | Replenishment / demand-management duties | COVERED | physics blocks refill; demand managed by auto-tightening budget toward recharge (homolog) |
| 11 | Adaptation cadence with condition triggers | COVERED | seasonal recompute against latest level reading; predefined tripwires tighten automatically |
| 12 | Farm-viability constraint | COVERED | sanctions graduated so they deter without killing a farm over one bad year; explicit second success condition |
| 13 | Dispute resolution & exception path | COVERED | standing panel for disputes/hardship/drought under published criteria, exceptions kept under hard ceiling |

Totals: COVERED 13/13. HARD 4/4.

## Design Y (d22)

| # | Component | Status | Note |
|---|-----------|--------|------|
| 1 | Resource boundary & shared-stock definition | COVERED | aquifer geologically bounded, farm population identified, slow-recharge constraint stated |
| 2 | Access & use limits tied to capacity | COVERED | quota = 70% of measured recharge, divided equally; no-net-increase new-well access |
| 3 | Hidden-state estimation [HARD] | MISSING | treats annual hydrological survey as directly reading the level; no inference from sparse/indirect data — measurement-as-solved, the failure the key flags |
| 4 | Uncertainty carried with estimate [HARD] | MISSING | measured values treated as confident numbers; survey "must identify precisely"; fixed 70% buffer not tied to estimation error/confidence bands |
| 5 | Irreversibility margin / option preservation [HARD] | COVERED | 70% safe-drawdown margin below permanent-loss point + 80% secondary warning threshold |
| 6 | Monitoring of behavior [HARD] | MISSING | aquifer-level survey only; no per-farm extraction verification (no audit/proxy/remote sensing); explicitly declines to meter wells but offers no substitute |
| 7 | Sanctions for over-extraction | COVERED | graduated: warning + fee, quota reduction, permit/well suspension |
| 8 | Incentive alignment for competing actors | COVERED | all capped equally, reciprocity, no incentive to over-pump if others restrained |
| 9 | Legitimacy basis for regional body | COVERED | historical-use/acreage basis, public data, appeals with farmer reps, fairness not coercion |
| 10 | Replenishment / demand-management duties | COVERED | demand held to 70% of recharge; restoration fund for recharge-enhancement research (homolog) |
| 11 | Adaptation cadence with condition triggers | COVERED | 5-year review plus urgent review if 80% warning threshold crossed |
| 12 | Farm-viability constraint | COVERED | no immediate loss of beneficial use; graduated sanctions; quota by historical use |
| 13 | Dispute resolution & exception path | COVERED | quarterly appeals committee + emergency/drought carve-outs |

Totals: COVERED 10/13. HARD 1/4 (only #5).
MISSING [HARD]: #3 hidden-state estimation, #4 uncertainty on estimate, #6 behavior monitoring.
