# c16 — Independent Coverage Verification

## Operative patterns (independently identified)

I queried the catalog with the domain-stripped meta-model of the problem, NOT
the pattern the design names.

- Facet "many independent agents drawing a shared renewable pool faster than it
  regenerates; private benefit / shared cost; protect the weakest drawers" →
  top substantive hit **`commons_governance`** (score 0.6925; also returned as
  the `source` archetype of `tragedy_of_the_commons` via
  find_archetypes_for_prime). This is the spine.
- Facet "system approaching a one-way irreversible failure threshold; act inside
  a narrow window before crossing; precautionary stressor reduction under
  uncertainty" → **`tipping_point_prevention`** (score 0.7507; `fail_safe_default`
  scored marginally higher but is about post-failure safe states, not
  pre-threshold prevention of a recruitment collapse — declined as off-structure).

Both patterns the design leans on are the ones the problem independently calls
for. I verify coverage of BOTH full component sets.

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## Coverage map A — `commons_governance` (13 components)

| Component | Status | Witness / Reason (from the recommendation alone) |
|-----------|--------|--------------------------------------------------|
| Shared Resource Boundary | instantiated | "Register the roughly 120 currently active operators as the rights-holding group … exclude transient vessels. This bounds who the resource is being protected for." Defines the stock + the rights-holding pool. |
| Access Rule | instantiated | "Close the de-facto open access … freeze new entry during recovery." Who may harvest is specified. |
| Use Quota or Use Limit | instantiated | "Set a cohort-wide total allowable catch on a glide-path … start around ten percent below current harvest and tighten on a schedule." Plus protected-baseline + proportional-above-it allocation. |
| Monitoring Signal | instantiated | "Require catch to be reported at the point of sale through the processing buyers … and run a yearly fishery-independent biomass-and-size survey. Both feed a public council dashboard." |
| Sanction Rule | instantiated | "a warning, then a temporary share reduction, then a seasonal suspension for repeated or large violations." Graduated and proportional. |
| Replenishment Rule | homolog | No active restocking; function discharged by "rotating no-take micro-reserves over known spawning grounds" + natural rebuilding under reduced pressure — a different mechanism serving stock-restoration. |
| Legitimacy Basis | instantiated | "Stand up a co-management council with elected seats from each of the five villages, formally recognised and backstopped by the regulator … legitimacy must instead come from the operators themselves plus transparent evidence." Directly answers the captured-regulator liability. |
| Dispute Resolution Path | instantiated | "Maintain an appeals path for share and sanction disputes and a documented hardship process." |
| Adaptation Cadence | instantiated | "Each year, the survey result either tightens or relaxes the glide-path … if biomass stalls, the cap tightens further." Condition-triggered annual revision. |
| Contribution Rule | instantiated | "Operators owe accurate reporting and participation in survey days in return for their secured access — obligations are reciprocal." |
| Funding Pool | instantiated | "a small per-landing levy plus a buyer co-contribution pays for monitoring, the survey, and the stabilization transfers." |
| Exception Process | instantiated | "a hardship top-up, and a stabilization transfer funded during the steepest cut years keep the weakest boats viable"; "documented hardship process." The bottom-quartile floor. |
| Transparency Record | instantiated | "Keep a transparent public ledger of catches, biomass trend, sanctions, and fund disbursements to guard against both capture … and overreach in monitoring." |

A-summary: 12 instantiated, 1 homolog (Replenishment), 0 declined, 0 missing.

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## Coverage map B — `tipping_point_prevention` (11 components)

| Component | Status | Witness / Reason (from the recommendation alone) |
|-----------|--------|--------------------------------------------------|
| Undesirable Transition Definition | instantiated | "steering the whole cohort toward a collapse that nobody wants … before the collapse threshold makes recovery impossible." The named, hard-to-reverse bad state. |
| Early Warning Signal | instantiated | The annual "biomass-and-size survey" and point-of-sale catch reporting feeding the dashboard supply rising-risk signals (declining CPUE/size context carried from problem). |
| Threshold Estimate | instantiated | "before the collapse threshold makes recovery impossible" + acting "inside the four-to-seven-year window" — the design treats the assessment's collapse threshold/window as its danger zone. |
| Intervention Window | instantiated | "act inside the four-to-seven-year window before the collapse threshold"; the glide-path "start[s]" immediately — window treated as scarce resource. |
| Stressor Reduction | instantiated | The TAC cut itself: "start around ten percent below current harvest and tighten" — directly lowers the extraction pressure driving the system to the threshold. |
| Feedback Damping | homolog | No explicit loop-damper named; the function (slow the runaway depletion→smaller-fish→lower-recruitment spiral) is served by the no-take spawning reserves protecting recruitment + the condition-keyed cap. Same function, substrate mechanism. |
| Prevention Authority | instantiated | The co-management council "formally recognised and backstopped by the regulator" holds the mandate to set/revise the cap before proof is conclusive — explicitly empowered to act under the deferential-regulator condition. |
| Resilience Buffer | homolog | Function (reserve capacity to absorb shock / aid recovery) discharged by the rotating no-take micro-reserves on spawning grounds, which preserve recruitment capacity — the same buffering role. |
| Trigger Removal | correctly_declined | The triggering driver IS over-extraction, already removed by Stressor Reduction; there is no separable discrete "trigger" (e.g. an event switch) to excise. Forcing a distinct component would duplicate the TAC cut. |
| Reversibility Check | correctly_declined | The entire glide-path-keyed-to-biomass design is the reversibility-preserving move; instantiating a standalone check would duplicate the Adaptation Cadence (annual loosen/tighten on observed recovery). Non-distorting decline. |
| Precautionary Action Band | instantiated | "let observed stock condition … move the limit up or down each year"; cap "tightens further" if biomass stalls — precommitted graduated action band on condition, acting before conclusive proof. |

B-summary: 7 instantiated, 2 homolog (Feedback Damping, Resilience Buffer), 2 correctly_declined (Trigger Removal, Reversibility Check), 0 missing.

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## Anti-signature spot-check (does the scenario disqualify either pattern?)

- commons_governance anti-sigs: resource is rivalrous + non-excludable (not
  private); over-extraction (not under-provision of a non-rival good); central
  authority is captured and lacks enforcement legitimacy (so admin allocation is
  NOT sufficient); 120 actors in a repeated game (not a one-time two-party
  dispute). None tripped.
- tipping_point_prevention anti-sigs: collapse is undesirable (not a deliberate
  crossing); recruitment collapse is hard-to-reverse (not gradual/reversible);
  assessment gives a credible 4–7 yr threshold; feasible pre-threshold levers
  exist (TAC + reserves); the design carries real intervention logic, not just an
  alarm. None tripped.

No anti-signature disqualifies the design under either pattern.

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## VERDICT: PASS

All 13 commons_governance components covered (12 instantiated, 1 homolog) and all
11 tipping_point_prevention components covered (7 instantiated, 2 homolog, 2
correctly_declined). No component is missing.
