# L4 Internal Forecasting — Coverage Audit

Designs: X = d03.md, Y = d29.md
[HARD] components: #3, #4, #8, #10

## Design X (d03)

| # | Component | Verdict | Note |
|---|-----------|---------|------|
| 1 | Target outcome vs. proxy | COVERED | scores against reality; anchors aggregate to how past estimates actually resolved |
| 2 | Participant + incentive map | COVERED | meta-model maps owners-optimistic / fear / leadership-echo; owners not sole estimators |
| 3 [HARD] | Truthfulness / scoring rule | COVERED | "only way to win the score is to predict reality" — honesty as best response |
| 4 [HARD] | Independence protocol | COVERED | collect blind; never show peers/running avg/leadership view before commit |
| 5 | Diversity criterion | COVERED | recruits different vantage points so error decorrelates |
| 6 | Estimate capture format | COVERED | low/likely/high 10–50–90 percentile ranges |
| 7 | Aggregation rule | COVERED | median or trimmed mean, not simple average |
| 8 [HARD] | Accuracy weighting / calibration loop | COVERED | weights by revealed track record; closes loop on realized outcomes |
| 9 | Disagreement measure + decision under spread | MISSING | trimming + ranges only; no rule that high spread triggers inquiry/hedging |
| 10 [HARD] | Retaliation safeguard | COVERED | hard firewall; estimate can never be cited against person/team |
| 11 | Estimation–decision separation | COVERED | estimating walled off from performance review and headcount |
| 12 | Participation / sustained engagement | COVERED | closes loop openly, value visible; re-weights over rounds |
| 13 | Gaming / equilibrium-drift monitor | COVERED | watches off-path gaming; recalibrates as conditions drift |
| 14 | Transparency / legitimacy | COVERED | rules stated explicitly and never violated; legible operating rule |

X total: 13/14 covered. HARD: 4/4 covered.

## Design Y (d29)

| # | Component | Verdict | Note |
|---|-----------|---------|------|
| 1 | Target outcome vs. proxy | COVERED | aggregate = planning baseline, not a target to beat; compared to actual |
| 2 | Participant + incentive map | MISSING | generic reputation/pessimism fear; no owner-vs-bystander misreporting map |
| 3 [HARD] | Truthfulness / scoring rule | MISSING | relies on privacy+median so honesty isn't punished; never makes truth the best response |
| 4 [HARD] | Independence protocol | COVERED | single-round unattributed; no sequential anchoring |
| 5 | Diversity criterion | MISSING | no requirement that contributors hold uncorrelated information |
| 6 | Estimate capture format | COVERED | low/medium/high range / uncertainty bounds |
| 7 | Aggregation rule | COVERED | median, trimmed mean, not mean |
| 8 [HARD] | Accuracy weighting / calibration loop | COVERED | per-person calibration tracked + bias fed back (weighting-up explicitly declined) |
| 9 | Disagreement measure + decision under spread | MISSING | median smooths outliers; spread never surfaced or acted on |
| 10 [HARD] | Retaliation safeguard | COVERED | estimates private, never attributed, never used to blame |
| 11 | Estimation–decision separation | COVERED | aggregate not used to evaluate individuals; walled from execution |
| 12 | Participation / sustained engagement | COVERED | feedback loop sustains trust and continued participation |
| 13 | Gaming / equilibrium-drift monitor | MISSING | static anti-failure checks; no watch for new gaming as players learn mechanism |
| 14 | Transparency / legitimacy | COVERED | leadership states purpose-is-planning framing explicitly |

Y total: 9/14 covered. HARD: 3/4 covered.
HARD missing: #3 Truthfulness / scoring rule.
