# L5 Invisible Commons — Coverage Audit

Designs: X = d32.md, Y = d15.md. [HARD] components: #3, #4, #5, #6.

## Design X (d32)

| # | Component | Verdict | Note |
|---|-----------|---------|------|
| 1 | Resource boundary & shared-stock definition | COVERED | "Single jointly owned account"; names aquifer, slow recharge, permanent compaction, reserve-wide monitoring. |
| 2 | Access & use limits tied to capacity | COVERED | Region-wide annual draw budget pegged to observed reserve condition, not a fixed number. |
| 3 | Hidden-state estimation [HARD] | COVERED | Sparse monitoring wells/surveys plus early-moving proxies (pump drop, energy/unit, recovery time, spread) infer state between costly readings. |
| 4 | Uncertainty carried with estimate [HARD] | COVERED | Spread/variability across wells and slowing recovery treated as resilience-loss signal; margin set generously above line. |
| 5 | Irreversibility margin / option preservation [HARD] | COVERED | Explicitly aims at a generous margin "well above" the collapse line and treats that margin as the real boundary. |
| 6 | Monitoring of behavior (un-meterable wells) [HARD] | COVERED | Estimates draw from energy records, imagery acreage, crop water needs; random audits with extra scrutiny on outliers. |
| 7 | Sanctions for over-extraction | COVERED | Graduated: warning, escalating fines, share reductions, loss of access. |
| 8 | Incentive alignment for competing actors | COVERED | Tradable shared budget; water flows to highest value, contractors paid to cut. |
| 9 | Legitimacy basis for rules | COVERED | Farm council co-writes rules, transparent record, evenly applied; compliance by consent. |
| 10 | Replenishment / demand-management | COVERED | Automatic ratchet-down of draw toward sustainable level; trading drives efficiency. |
| 11 | Adaptation cadence with condition triggers | COVERED | Fixed review cadence; revises budget formula and proxy thresholds; condition-triggered ratchet. |
| 12 | Farm-viability constraint | COVERED | Trading protects viability; marginal farms "paid to cut back rather than crushed." |
| 13 | Dispute resolution & exception path | COVERED | Appeals path for disputed estimates; council mandate subject to later review. |

**X total: 13/13 covered. HARD: 4/4 covered.**

## Design Y (d15)

| # | Component | Verdict | Note |
|---|-----------|---------|------|
| 1 | Resource boundary & shared-stock definition | COVERED | Commons = reserve measured above compaction point; users = all drawing farms. |
| 2 | Access & use limits tied to capacity | COVERED | Allocation = refill × 0.85 / farms, recalculated on measured refill. |
| 3 | Hidden-state estimation [HARD] | MISSING | Treats measurement as direct reading from a sensor network ("track water level"); no inference from sparse/indirect data — the exact failure the HARD flag warns against. |
| 4 | Uncertainty carried with estimate [HARD] | MISSING | Reserve modeled as a confident single number (level, trend, months-to-threshold); no error bands; fixed 15% margin not tied to estimation error. |
| 5 | Irreversibility margin / option preservation [HARD] | COVERED | Explicit 15% safety margin above threshold; precautionary framing and hard-stop trigger. |
| 6 | Monitoring of behavior (un-meterable wells) [HARD] | MISSING | Relies on "water-use metering at each well," directly violating the can't-cheaply-meter constraint. |
| 7 | Sanctions for over-extraction | COVERED | Graduated: notice, conservation levy, allocation cut, loss of rights. |
| 8 | Incentive alignment for competing actors | COVERED | Self-enforcing levy makes conservation the rational choice (no tradable rights, but payoff restructured). |
| 9 | Legitimacy basis for rules | COVERED | Farm representation, participatory review, appeals, fairness emphasis. |
| 10 | Replenishment / demand-management | COVERED | Levy-funded supplemental supply and managed aquifer recharge. |
| 11 | Adaptation cadence with condition triggers | COVERED | Annual review with farm participation; allocations recalculated and revised on measurement. |
| 12 | Farm-viability constraint | COVERED | "No farm denied access"; supplemental supply keeps farms operating. |
| 13 | Dispute resolution & exception path | COVERED | Farms can appeal allocation decisions with supporting data. |

**Y total: 10/13 covered. HARD: 1/4 covered. HARD missing: #3, #4, #6.**
