# L4 Internal Forecasting — Coverage Audit (C-prime)

Judged on FUNCTION between RECOMMENDATION markers. Same standard for both. [HARD] = #3, #4, #8, #10.

## Design X — d19.md

| # | Component | Status | Clause |
|---|-----------|--------|--------|
| 1 | Target outcome vs. proxy | COVERED | "separating what you are measuring from what people wish were true"; target = eventual observed outcome. |
| 2 | Participant + incentive map | COVERED | names owner-tempted-to-look-good, team-afraid-of-reprisal, leadership-pleaser. |
| 3 [HARD] | Truthfulness / scoring rule | COVERED | proper scoring vs. realized outcome where "shading a number up or down lowers your own long-run score." |
| 4 [HARD] | Independence protocol | COVERED | collect privately/simultaneously, before peers, never show live pooled number. |
| 5 | Diversity criterion | COVERED | "exploit diversity, not just count"; downweight suspiciously correlated reports. |
| 6 | Estimate capture format | COVERED | ask for ranges/probabilities, not single points. |
| 7 | Aggregation rule | COVERED | weighted average/track-record weighting, explicit. |
| 8 [HARD] | Accuracy weighting / calibration loop | COVERED | weight by demonstrated calibration once history exists; score vs. outcomes. |
| 9 | Disagreement measure | COVERED | surface and record sharp dissenters rather than discard. |
| 10 [HARD] | Retaliation safeguard | COVERED | pessimism never held against person/team; reports confidential; "protect the honest pessimist absolutely." |
| 11 | Estimation–decision separation | COVERED | decouple score from ownership/blame; feeds calibration not performance reviews. |
| 12 | Participation constraint | COVERED | watch participation of honest pessimists; simplify reporting effort. |
| 13 | Gaming / equilibrium-drift monitor | COVERED | "people learn the rule"; track accuracy drift, spread collapse, withdrawal; retune. |
| 14 | Transparency / legitimacy | COVERED | publish how scoring/aggregation works, not the in-progress result. |

**X: 14/14 covered; HARD 4/4 covered.**

## Design Y — d13.md

| # | Component | Status | Clause |
|---|-----------|--------|--------|
| 1 | Target outcome vs. proxy | COVERED | forecasts real quantity; scored vs. actuals; "evaluated against what was knowable at forecast-time." |
| 2 | Participant + incentive map | MISSING | treats estimators generically; no map of who benefits from a flattering number (owner vs. bystander). |
| 3 [HARD] | Truthfulness / scoring rule | COVERED | Brier/absolute-error scoring of each estimate against realized outcome (functional proper-scoring). |
| 4 [HARD] | Independence protocol | COVERED | blind first round, sealed submissions, no intermediate tallies/leading estimates. |
| 5 | Diversity criterion | MISSING | preserves independence but no criterion that contributors carry genuinely different information/vantage. |
| 6 | Estimate capture format | MISSING | individual estimates are points + rationale; uncertainty appears only as cross-person bands, not per-estimate. |
| 7 | Aggregation rule | COVERED | median with 25th/75th percentile bands, explicit. |
| 8 [HARD] | Accuracy weighting / calibration loop | MISSING | outcomes tracked and post-mortem'd, but aggregate stays an unweighted median; reliable estimators never weighted up. |
| 9 | Disagreement measure | COVERED | percentile bands + revision-direction + post-mortem when outcome falls outside band. |
| 10 [HARD] | Retaliation safeguard | COVERED | blind throughout; anonymous HR channel; accuracy tracked separately from project outcomes. |
| 11 | Estimation–decision separation | COVERED | "estimate accuracy tracked separately from project outcomes... good forecast, not a failure." |
| 12 | Participation constraint | COVERED | quarterly accuracy publishing shows value; aims to keep honest participation/self-correction. |
| 13 | Gaming / equilibrium-drift monitor | COVERED | friction gate vs. copying + post-mortem bias detection feeding next cycle. |
| 14 | Transparency / legitimacy | COVERED | phases legible; quarterly historical-accuracy publishing; aggregate (not individuals) published. |

**Y: 11/14 covered; HARD 3/4 covered. HARD MISSING: #8 (accuracy-based weighting — aggregate stays unweighted median).**
