Predicting U.S. Recessions

Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Review or monograph

Year

1998

Volume

80

Issue

1

Pages

45-61

DOI

10.1162/003465398557320

DOI registrant

MIT Press

Link

https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557320

Cited from

systems_cybernetics

Cited by

1 citation across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Cue Outcome Decoupling
  • In finance, historical correlations like an inverted yield curve preceding recession decouple from outcomes when the structural regime that produced them shifts, and positioning lags.

    This sourceTreats the yield-curve–recession correlation as a leading indicator whose reliability is contingent on the prevailing structural regime.

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