Probability, frequency and reasonable expectation.

Cox, R. T. (1946). Probability, frequency and reasonable expectation. American Journal of Physics, 14(1), 1-13.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1946

Volume

14

Issue

1

Pages

1-13

DOI

10.1119/1.1990764

DOI registrant

American Association of Physics Teachers

Link

https://doi.org/10.1119/1.1990764

Cited from

philosophy, statistics_experimental_design

Cited by

3 citations across 3 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Bayesian Updating
  • The normalization constant making probabilities sum to one

    This sourceDerives the rules of probability (including unit total mass / normalization) from consistency desiderata for plausible reasoning, grounding probability-as-logic. SUPPORTS marker 004 (normalization as a coherence requirement).

• Uncertainty
  • - Structural tension: Bayesian (de Finetti, Savage) probability is a degree of rational belief — "you assign P(θ) = 0.3 if you'd accept a 3-to-7 bet on θ."

    This sourceCox desiderata for probability as logic framework connecting Bayesian updating to information theory.

Domain-specific

• Probability axioms
  • … that the sample space, event sigma-algebra and measure are typed, probability is nonnegative, the whole space has measure one and countable additivity holds for pairwise disjoint events. to An applied instance preserves the same invariant under a changed scale, notation, jurisdiction, dataset, or implementation..

Verification

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