Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?¶
Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159-183.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Calibration
- Most people are naturally miscalibrated (overconfident or underconfident), and explicit calibration training (showing feedback on past forecast accuracy versus stated confidence) improves this, as Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) demonstrated in their seminal experiments on probability training.
This sourceSeminal experimental demonstration of overconfidence and that probability calibration responds to task difficulty and to outcome feedback/training — foundational for forecasting calibration-training programs.
- Most people are naturally miscalibrated (overconfident or underconfident), and explicit calibration training (showing feedback on past forecast accuracy versus stated confidence) improves this, as Lichtenstein and Fischhoff (1977) demonstrated in their seminal experiments on probability training.
Mechanisms¶
- Confidence Rating Scale
- Scales also drift without shared anchors, and confidence itself is unevenly biased: people tend to be overconfident on hard tasks and underconfident on easy ones, so a raw rating can mislead in a direction that varies with difficulty.
This sourceFinds that confidence calibration varies with item difficulty, with relative overconfidence on hard items and underconfidence on easy items.
- Scales also drift without shared anchors, and confidence itself is unevenly biased: people tend to be overconfident on hard tasks and underconfident on easy ones, so a raw rating can mislead in a direction that varies with difficulty.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. Neither this nor any other of the 2 citations of this work carries a recorded support check.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:0f4954fc643d · see in the full table