How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction¶
Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats. Psychological Review, 102(4), 684-704.
Cited by¶
3 citations across 3 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Probability
- T6: Applied Numeracy and Calibration.
This sourceDemonstrates that natural-frequency and tree formats substantially improve Bayesian reasoning over single-probability statements; canonical applied-numeracy and calibration result for everyday probability judgment.
- T6: Applied Numeracy and Calibration.
Domain-specific¶
Mechanisms¶
- Diagnostic Test
- Its signature failure is base-rate neglect: applied to a low-prevalence pool, even an accurate test produces mostly false positives, so a positive result read as near-certainty misleads badly.
This sourceDemonstrates how base-rate neglect makes positive diagnostic results misleading in low-prevalence populations despite strong test accuracy.
- Its signature failure is base-rate neglect: applied to a low-prevalence pool, even an accurate test produces mostly false positives, so a positive result read as near-certainty misleads badly.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 3 citations: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
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Registry ID ref:152b5cb13097 · see in the full table