How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction¶
Gigerenzer, G., & Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats. Psychological Review, 102(4), 684-704.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Probability
- T6: Applied Numeracy and Calibration.
This sourceDemonstrates that natural-frequency and tree formats substantially improve Bayesian reasoning over single-probability statements; canonical applied-numeracy and calibration result for everyday probability judgment.
- T6: Applied Numeracy and Calibration.
Mechanisms¶
- Diagnostic Test
- Its signature failure is base-rate neglect: applied to a low-prevalence pool, even an accurate test produces mostly false positives, so a positive result read as near-certainty misleads badly.
This sourceDemonstrates how base-rate neglect makes positive diagnostic results misleading in low-prevalence populations despite strong test accuracy.
- Its signature failure is base-rate neglect: applied to a low-prevalence pool, even an accurate test produces mostly false positives, so a positive result read as near-certainty misleads badly.
Verification¶
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Registry ID ref:152b5cb13097 · see in the full table