Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts¶
Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking. Management Science, 39(1), 17-31.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Cycle-Time and Lag Retrospective
- … the loop that most temporal systems leave open: it converts lived timing into better forecasts, so the chronic optimism of plans that count effort while ignoring waiting gets corrected by evidence — the disciplined "outside view" of estimating from a reference class of past actuals rather than a fresh optimistic guess
This sourceDefines the outside view as estimating from the outcome distribution of comparable past cases rather than from a fresh optimistic scenario.
- … the loop that most temporal systems leave open: it converts lived timing into better forecasts, so the chronic optimism of plans that count effort while ignoring waiting gets corrected by evidence — the disciplined "outside view" of estimating from a reference class of past actuals rather than a fresh optimistic guess
- Reference Class Comparison
- Its defining move is the deliberate shift from the particular to the population: when the inside view says 90% and the reference class of similar past efforts came in at 40%, the gap is the calibration finding, and the base rate usually deserves most of the weight.
This sourceDefines the outside view as a statistical comparison of the current case with outcomes from an appropriate class of similar past ventures rather than a forecast built from the current plan alone.
- Its defining move is the deliberate shift from the particular to the population: when the inside view says 90% and the reference class of similar past efforts came in at 40%, the gap is the calibration finding, and the base rate usually deserves most of the weight.
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