Initial Experiments with the Cross-Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting.

Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial Experiments with the Cross-Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1968

Volume

1

Issue

2

Pages

100-116

ISSN

0016-3287

DOI

10.1016/s0016-3287(68)80003-5

DOI registrant

Elsevier

Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(68)80003-5

Cited from

futurism_foresight

Cited by

4 citations across 4 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Cross-Impact Analysis
  • Gordon's Enhanced Impact Report (EIR) method
• Future Wheel
  • Drawing on the cross-impact methodology Gordon and Hayward (1968) pioneered for assessing trend interactions, mature practice calibrates the depth to the domain rather than applying a standard four-layer exercise uniformly — depth is an output of the exploration's yield curve, not a fixed prescription.

    This sourceFoundational cross-impact paper; supports calibrating analytical depth to the yield of a specific exploration rather than applying a uniform prescription.

Mechanisms

• Interaction Matrix Table
  • Its strength is that it makes the whole combination space legible in one place and forces every observation to arrive already classified, confidence-rated, and tied to an action — which is what turns a pile of test results into a decision surface a group can share.
• Pairwise Influence Scoring
  • It is the disciplined descendant of classical cross-impact analysis

    This sourceIntroduces a cross-impact matrix that makes judgments about interactions among forecast events explicit and comparable.

Verification

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Links previously used in the corpus

Before the registry existed this work was also linked 1 other way.

• https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328768800035 ×1

Registry ID ref:203c93e53a41 · see in the full table