From Nobel Prize to Project Management¶
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5-15.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Data Leakage
- In project estimation, cost and schedule estimates calibrated on completed projects with full hindsight import information the original estimators never had, producing optimism that fails to recur under genuine inception uncertainty.
This sourceArgues that estimates calibrated on completed projects import hindsight the original estimators lacked, and proposes reference-class forecasting as the corrective.
- In project estimation, cost and schedule estimates calibrated on completed projects with full hindsight import information the original estimators never had, producing optimism that fails to recur under genuine inception uncertainty.
- Planning Fallacy
- The transferable content is an intervention family, all aimed at forcing the outside view into the forecast. Reference-class forecasting explicitly computes the empirical distribution of completion times or costs for a class of comparable past tasks and adjusts the inside-view estimate toward it by an empirically fitted factor.
This sourceDevelops reference-class forecasting as the operational outside-view correction adjusting estimates by an empirically fitted factor.
- The transferable content is an intervention family, all aimed at forcing the outside view into the forecast. Reference-class forecasting explicitly computes the empirical distribution of completion times or costs for a class of comparable past tasks and adjusts the inside-view estimate toward it by an empirically fitted factor.
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