From Nobel Prize to Project Management¶
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5-15.
Cited by¶
5 citations across 5 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Data Leakage
- In project estimation, cost and schedule estimates calibrated on completed projects with full hindsight import information the original estimators never had, producing optimism that fails to recur under genuine inception uncertainty.
This sourceArgues that estimates calibrated on completed projects import hindsight the original estimators lacked, and proposes reference-class forecasting as the corrective.
- In project estimation, cost and schedule estimates calibrated on completed projects with full hindsight import information the original estimators never had, producing optimism that fails to recur under genuine inception uncertainty.
- Planning Fallacy
- The transferable content is an intervention family, all aimed at forcing the outside view into the forecast. Reference-class forecasting explicitly computes the empirical distribution of completion times or costs for a class of comparable past tasks and adjusts the inside-view estimate toward it by an empirically fitted factor.
This sourceDevelops reference-class forecasting as the operational outside-view correction adjusting estimates by an empirically fitted factor.
SupportedVerified against the work's full text
Flyvbjerg sets out reference-class forecasting as a procedure in which a class of completed, comparable projects is used to “establish probability distributions for cost overruns for new projects similar in scope and risks”, and reports appraisers being directed to make explicit, empirically based adjustments to estimates of cost, benefit and duration from data on past comparable projects. That distribution plus correction is the procedure the sentence describes. The work's own terms are probability distributions and empirically based adjustments rather than the empirically fitted factor the sentence names.
“(2) Establishing a probability distribution for the selected reference class.”
- The transferable content is an intervention family, all aimed at forcing the outside view into the forecast. Reference-class forecasting explicitly computes the empirical distribution of completion times or costs for a class of comparable past tasks and adjusts the inside-view estimate toward it by an empirically fitted factor.
Mechanisms¶
- Contingency Buffer Review
- By anchoring buffer size on comparable efforts it applies reference-class forecasting, the outside-view correction to the systematic underestimation of time and cost
This sourcePresents reference-class forecasting as an outside-view method that bases forecasts on actual performance of comparable projects to counter optimism and systematic project-forecast inaccuracy.
- By anchoring buffer size on comparable efforts it applies reference-class forecasting, the outside-view correction to the systematic underestimation of time and cost
- Feasibility Study
- One is advocacy — the study run backwards to justify a decision already made, with optimism baked into every input; this is where large-project cost and schedule estimates go systematically wrong, and the corrective is reference-class forecasting
This sourceDocuments systematic project-estimate error from optimism and strategic misrepresentation and defines reference-class forecasting around actual outcomes for comparable projects.
- One is advocacy — the study run backwards to justify a decision already made, with optimism baked into every input; this is where large-project cost and schedule estimates go systematically wrong, and the corrective is reference-class forecasting
- Reference-Class Forecast
- Its defining move is the outside view: instead of building a forecast bottom-up from this project's plan — the path that reliably produces optimism — it anchors on the empirical distribution of comparable past cases and positions the new case within it.
This sourceDefines reference-class forecasting as taking an outside view that places the project in an empirical distribution of comparable past cases instead of relying on its inside-view plan.
- Its defining move is the outside view: instead of building a forecast bottom-up from this project's plan — the path that reliably produces optimism — it anchors on the empirical distribution of comparable past cases and positions the new case within it.
Verification¶
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