Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting

Morton, R. B., Muller, D., Page, L., & Torgler, B. (2015). Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment. European Economic Review, 77, 65-81.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2015

DOI

10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012

Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.012

Cited from

sociology_anthropology

Cited by

1 citation across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Self-Defeating Prediction
  • Election polling and capacity planning. Polls showing a wide lead drive complacency or strategic consolidation; capacity forecasts trigger pre-emptive scaling that prevents the predicted load.

    This sourceNatural-experiment evidence that releasing the expected result (exit-poll information) lowers turnout by about 11 points and shifts strategic/bandwagon voting — a forecast of the outcome that alters the behavior producing it.

Verification

This reference passed the adversarial substantiation pipeline: it was checked to exist and to support the claim it is attached to. See how references were verified.

Registry ID ref:285413ae2ef5 · see in the full table