Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting¶
Morton, R. B., Muller, D., Page, L., & Torgler, B. (2015). Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment. European Economic Review, 77, 65-81.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Self-Defeating Prediction
- Election polling and capacity planning. Polls showing a wide lead drive complacency or strategic consolidation; capacity forecasts trigger pre-emptive scaling that prevents the predicted load.
This sourceNatural-experiment evidence that releasing the expected result (exit-poll information) lowers turnout by about 11 points and shifts strategic/bandwagon voting — a forecast of the outcome that alters the behavior producing it.
- Election polling and capacity planning. Polls showing a wide lead drive complacency or strategic consolidation; capacity forecasts trigger pre-emptive scaling that prevents the predicted load.
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