proper scoring rule¶
Brier, G. W. (1950). proper scoring rule.
Retired. This entry was not a citation. Our extractor stored an inline prose definition from the article as though it were a bibliographic record: the title names a concept rather than a published work, and the citation text names no work at all. The page is kept because links to it still resolve, but it is withdrawn from the reference list. This entry is kept so the citations that pointed at it still resolve, and so the correction is visible rather than silent.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Calibrated Probability Elicitation
- Someone perfectly calibrated on almanac trivia may be wildly overconfident on their own specialty, where motivated reasoning bites hardest, so a good seed score can launder a bad substantive judgment.
This sourceIt measures calibration on the seed questions — but calibration is domain-sensitive, so a strong seed score is necessary, not sufficient, evidence that the target judgment is trustworthy.
- Someone perfectly calibrated on almanac trivia may be wildly overconfident on their own specialty, where motivated reasoning bites hardest, so a good seed score can launder a bad substantive judgment.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Not checked yet. This entry carries no identifier to resolve. It was extracted from the citation as written in the article, normalized, and deduplicated against the rest of the registry.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. The single citation of this work carries no recorded support check.
Was it audited? Yes. A second, independent pass read the citation against the article text and recorded a verdict.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:364fbcf57a4e · see in the full table