Intelligence Community Directive 203

Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2015). Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards.

Type

Report

Intellectual base

Grey literature

Year

2015

Link

https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICD/ICD-203.pdf

Cited from

statistics_experimental_design

Cited by

3 citations across 3 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Confidence Annotation
  • In intelligence analysis it is estimative language attached to judgments, with explicit definitions of what each band means about source reliability and analytic robustness.

    This sourceDefines estimative (probability) language and source-reliability/confidence bands attached to analytic judgments.

Mechanisms

• Evidence Sufficiency Rubric
  • The discipline that keeps it honest is to test independence rather than count it, to publish the residual gap rather than bury it, and to refuse the rubric any question that is not actually evidentiary.

    This sourceRequires analytic products to identify information gaps and explain how those gaps and other uncertainties affect judgments.

• Move-Countermove Log
  • The discipline is to record confidence explicitly, keep "observed" and "inferred" in separate registers, and let the honest gaps in attribution stand

    This sourceRequires analytic products to state confidence and uncertainty explicitly and to preserve visible knowledge gaps rather than hiding them inside unstated assumptions.

Verification

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