Intuitive Prediction¶
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures. TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 313-327.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Data Leakage
- Carried into project estimation, estimating completed projects with full hindsight is the temporal-leakage analogue, and reference-class forecasting is the firewall enforcement.
This sourceIntroduces reference-class (outside-view) forecasting as the corrective for the inside-view optimism that hindsight-calibrated estimation produces.
- Carried into project estimation, estimating completed projects with full hindsight is the temporal-leakage analogue, and reference-class forecasting is the firewall enforcement.
- Planning Fallacy
- The bias is robust to feedback, persists in experts, and has been measured with roughly the same magnitude — a median overrun of about 30–50% on time and cost, with a long right tail — across decades, cultures, and project classes.
This sourceIntroduces the planning fallacy and the inside-view/outside-view distinction as the corrective for systematic underestimation of task duration and cost.
- The bias is robust to feedback, persists in experts, and has been measured with roughly the same magnitude — a median overrun of about 30–50% on time and cost, with a long right tail — across decades, cultures, and project classes.
Verification¶
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