Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence¶
Altman, D. G., & Bland, J. M. (1995). Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. BMJ, 311(7003).
Cited by¶
11 citations across 11 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Absence Of Evidence Vs Evidence Of Absence
- In statistics and epidemiology, power analysis is the formal prerequisite for treating a non-rejection of the null as informative; testing without prospective power routinely underwrites false reassurance, with "no effect detected" conflated with "no effect exists."
This sourceCanonical statement that a non-significant result reflects lack of power, not demonstrated absence of effect.
- In statistics and epidemiology, power analysis is the formal prerequisite for treating a non-rejection of the null as informative; testing without prospective power routinely underwrites false reassurance, with "no effect detected" conflated with "no effect exists."
- Empirical No-Failure Anchor
- The confusion this prime dissolves is the slide from "we looked and saw nothing" to "there is nothing there," performed on a number that looks far too precise to be doing anything so loose.
This sourceDistinguishes a study having shown no difference from a study having failed to show one, and ties the strength of the negative reading to the power of the design that produced it.
- The confusion this prime dissolves is the slide from "we looked and saw nothing" to "there is nothing there," performed on a number that looks far too precise to be doing anything so loose.
Mechanisms¶
- Absence-Evidence Calibration Test
- Diagnostic Sampling
- A clean capture window is not proof of absence — the episode may simply not have recurred while you were measuring, and sparse targeted sampling can only bound, never eliminate, that possibility.
This sourceExplains that failure to obtain statistically significant evidence does not establish that an effect is absent.
- A clean capture window is not proof of absence — the episode may simply not have recurred while you were measuring, and sparse targeted sampling can only bound, never eliminate, that possibility.
- Downstream Inference Guardrail
- The reasoning that consumes the complement is thereby fenced against a conclusion the data cannot support.
This sourceExplains that a nonsignificant result does not establish the absence of an effect or difference.
- The reasoning that consumes the complement is thereby fenced against a conclusion the data cannot support.
- Empty-Result Review Gate
- It embodies the maxim that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence: an empty intersection is only meaningful once you have ruled out the reasons it might be empty by accident.
This sourceWarns that a nonsignificant or empty result is not by itself evidence that the underlying effect is absent.
- It embodies the maxim that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence: an empty intersection is only meaningful once you have ruled out the reasons it might be empty by accident.
- Null Finding Warrant Memo
- Both trade on the old dictum that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
This sourceDistinguishes absence of evidence for an effect from evidence that the effect is absent.
- Both trade on the old dictum that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
- Sentinel Blind-Zone Probe
- Its central failure mode is misreading quiet: a silent probe is easily taken as "all clear" when it means only "nothing detected at this point, so far" — absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and a dead, evaded, or badly-placed sentinel produces exactly the same silence as a truly empty zone.
This sourceWarns that failure to detect evidence is not affirmative evidence that the underlying effect is absent.
- Its central failure mode is misreading quiet: a silent probe is easily taken as "all clear" when it means only "nothing detected at this point, so far" — absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, and a dead, evaded, or badly-placed sentinel produces exactly the same silence as a truly empty zone.
- Symptom–Biomarker Crosswalk
- Its failure mode is the seduction of the empty test result — treating a normal panel as proof of nothing wrong, when absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
This sourceStates that failure to observe evidence does not by itself establish absence.
- Its failure mode is the seduction of the empty test result — treating a normal panel as proof of nothing wrong, when absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
- Unknown-State Routing Rule
- Its strength is that it prevents the most common and dangerous predicate error — treating absence of evidence as evidence of the negative
This sourceWarns that absence of evidence must not be treated as evidence that an effect or condition is absent.
- Its strength is that it prevents the most common and dangerous predicate error — treating absence of evidence as evidence of the negative
- Zero-Row Result with Schema
- Preserving the schema and the execution record turns "no findings" into positive, checkable evidence — a direct guard against treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence.
This sourceWarns that a null finding is not, by itself, evidence that the sought effect or condition is absent.
- Preserving the schema and the execution record turns "no findings" into positive, checkable evidence — a direct guard against treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence.
Verification¶
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