Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence¶
Altman, D. G., & Bland, J. M. (1995). Absence of Evidence Is Not Evidence of Absence: Diagnostic tests 2: predictive values. BMJ, 311(7003).
Cited by¶
6 citations across 6 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Absence Of Evidence Vs Evidence Of Absence
- In statistics and epidemiology, power analysis is the formal prerequisite for treating a non-rejection of the null as informative; testing without prospective power routinely underwrites false reassurance, with "no effect detected" conflated with "no effect exists."
This sourceCanonical statement that a non-significant result reflects lack of power, not demonstrated absence of effect.
- In statistics and epidemiology, power analysis is the formal prerequisite for treating a non-rejection of the null as informative; testing without prospective power routinely underwrites false reassurance, with "no effect detected" conflated with "no effect exists."
- Empirical No-Failure Anchor
- The confusion this prime dissolves is the slide from "we looked and saw nothing" to "there is nothing there," performed on a number that looks far too precise to be doing anything so loose.
This sourceDistinguishes a study having shown no difference from a study having failed to show one, and ties the strength of the negative reading to the power of the design that produced it.
- The confusion this prime dissolves is the slide from "we looked and saw nothing" to "there is nothing there," performed on a number that looks far too precise to be doing anything so loose.
Mechanisms¶
- Absence-Evidence Calibration Test
- Diagnostic Threshold Calibration
- At the clinic's cutoff, the screen would generate mostly false positives
This sourceShows that lower disease prevalence reduces positive predictive value and can make many positive screening results false positives.
- At the clinic's cutoff, the screen would generate mostly false positives
- Downstream Inference Guardrail
- The reasoning that consumes the complement is thereby fenced against a conclusion the data cannot support.
This sourceExplains that a nonsignificant result does not establish the absence of an effect or difference.
- The reasoning that consumes the complement is thereby fenced against a conclusion the data cannot support.
- Zero-Row Result with Schema
- Preserving the schema and the execution record turns "no findings" into positive, checkable evidence — a direct guard against treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence.
This sourceWarns that a null finding is not, by itself, evidence that the sought effect or condition is absent.
- Preserving the schema and the execution record turns "no findings" into positive, checkable evidence — a direct guard against treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence.
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