100-Year Flood–It's All About Chance¶
Holmes, R. R., & Dinicola, K. (2010). 100-Year Flood–It's All About Chance.
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Domain-specific¶
- Protection Standard
- FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program define regulatory Special Flood Hazard Areas by the 1-percent-annual-chance flood — the flood with a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in any given year, whose return period is 1/0.01 = 100 years.
This sourceThe USGS explanation that the 1-percent annual-exceedance-probability flood — a 1-in-100 annual chance with a 100-year average recurrence interval — is the basis of the National Flood Insurance Program and is called the '100-year flood'. The compounding of a 1 percent annual exceedance chance to roughly a 26 percent chance of at least one occurrence over a 30-year period.
Supported in partVerified against a saved copy of the source
“Because the 1-percent AEP flood has a 1 in 100 chance of being equaled or exceeded in any 1 year, and it has an average recurrence interval of 100 years, it often is referred to as the "100-year flood".”
- FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program define regulatory Special Flood Hazard Areas by the 1-percent-annual-chance flood — the flood with a 1% probability of being equaled or exceeded in any given year, whose return period is 1/0.01 = 100 years.
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