Back to the Future¶
Mitchell, D. J., Edward Russo, J., & Pennington, N. (1989). Back to the Future: Temporal Perspective in the Explanation of Events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(1), 25-38.
Cited by¶
4 citations across 4 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Non-Target Impact Pre-Mortem
- The technique's real name is prospective hindsight, and its power comes precisely from imagining the failure as already inevitable.
This sourceDefines prospective hindsight as imagining that a future event has already occurred and then explaining that certain outcome.
- The technique's real name is prospective hindsight, and its power comes precisely from imagining the failure as already inevitable.
- Premortem as Auxiliary Probe
- Prospective hindsight, the cognitive trick a premortem exploits, measurably increases the reasons people can generate for an outcome
This sourceFinds that prospective hindsight increases the number of reasons people generate for a future event.
- Prospective hindsight, the cognitive trick a premortem exploits, measurably increases the reasons people can generate for an outcome
- Premortem Assumption Probe
- Its strength is prospective hindsight: imagining an outcome has already occurred measurably improves people's ability to generate reasons for it
This sourceDefines prospective hindsight as explaining a future event as if it had happened and reports increased reason generation for outcomes treated as certain, with the effect driven chiefly by certainty.
- Its strength is prospective hindsight: imagining an outcome has already occurred measurably improves people's ability to generate reasons for it
- Prospective Hindsight Prompt
- Its strength is disproportionate to its size: a one-sentence reframe measurably loosens the tongue, because prospective hindsight — imagining an outcome as already certain — makes people generate more, and more specific, reasons than asking them to forecast possibilities does
This sourceFinds that treating a future outcome as certain generates more, more event-specific reasons than treating it as uncertain.
- Its strength is disproportionate to its size: a one-sentence reframe measurably loosens the tongue, because prospective hindsight — imagining an outcome as already certain — makes people generate more, and more specific, reasons than asking them to forecast possibilities does
Verification¶
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