Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.¶
Richardson, D. S. (2000). Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126(564), 649-667.
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Primes¶
- Confidence Annotation
- The consumer contract is a decision threshold: an airport de-ices when \(p\) exceeds a cost-determined cutoff, so the marker drives a different action as it crosses the threshold — the test that separates a working annotation from mood.
This sourceDevelops the cost-loss decision model in which a probability forecast drives protective action once it crosses a user-specific cost/loss-ratio threshold, the consumer-contract slot for a calibrated forecast.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
Abstract shows ensemble probability forecasts give users more economic value than deterministic ones, but never states the cost-loss threshold or de-icing mechanism.
“Probability forecasts derived from the EPS are of greater benefit than a deterministic forecast produced by the same model.”
- The consumer contract is a decision threshold: an airport de-ices when \(p\) exceeds a cost-determined cutoff, so the marker drives a different action as it crosses the threshold — the test that separates a working annotation from mood.
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