Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists¶
Croushore, & Stark. (2001). Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Domain-specific¶
- Ground-Truth Drift
- Careful forecast-evaluation practice therefore uses real-time "vintage" databases (such as the Philadelphia Fed's real-time dataset) to score each forecast against the data as it stood then
This sourcePaper showing that forecast evaluation must use real-time data vintages, since standard forecast-error measures are deceptively lower when computed on latest-available data.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
“comparisons between the forecasts generated from new models and benchmark forecasts, generated in real time, should be based on real-time data.”
- Careful forecast-evaluation practice therefore uses real-time "vintage" databases (such as the Philadelphia Fed's real-time dataset) to score each forecast against the data as it stood then
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Registry ID ref:4976abb81349 · see in the full table