Misinterpretations of the ‘Cone of Uncertainty’ in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season¶
Broad, K., Leiserowitz, A., Weinkle, J., & Steketee, M. (2007). Misinterpretations of the ‘Cone of Uncertainty’ in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(5), 651-668.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Uncertainty Band
- Readers commit the deterministic-construal error — treating the band's edge as a hard boundary ("it won't go past here") or reading the central line as the forecast and ignoring the shading entirely.
This sourceDocuments deterministic misreadings of hurricane forecast cones, including treating the edge as a hard limit and over-reading the central track as the forecast.
- Readers commit the deterministic-construal error — treating the band's edge as a hard boundary ("it won't go past here") or reading the central line as the forecast and ignoring the shading entirely.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. The single citation of this work carries no recorded support check.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
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Registry ID ref:543804603bec · see in the full table