Trial Factors for the Look Elsewhere Effect in High Energy Physics.¶
Gross, E., & Vitells, O. (2010). Trial Factors for the Look Elsewhere Effect in High Energy Physics. European Physical Journal C, 70(1–2), 525-530.
Cited by¶
5 citations across 5 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
- A folk pattern named after a Texan barn wall furnished a portable metaphor that epidemiology, statistics, high-energy physics (where it is the "look-elsewhere effect"), finance (out-of-sample backtesting), machine learning (held-out evaluation and pre-registered benchmarks), and meta-science (registered reports) each absorbed into their own practice.
This sourceFormalizes the look-elsewhere effect, the high-energy-physics version of the post-hoc-cluster multiplicity correction.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
The paper supplies the high-energy-physics 'look elsewhere effect' (a multiplicity/trial-factor correction) but nothing about the barn-wall metaphor or the other five fields the sentence enumerates.
“When searching for a new resonance somewhere in a possible mass range, the significance of observing a local excess of events must take into account the probability of observing such an excess anywhere in the range. This is the so called “look elsewhere effect”.”
- A folk pattern named after a Texan barn wall furnished a portable metaphor that epidemiology, statistics, high-energy physics (where it is the "look-elsewhere effect"), finance (out-of-sample backtesting), machine learning (held-out evaluation and pre-registered benchmarks), and meta-science (registered reports) each absorbed into their own practice.
Mechanisms¶
- Bonferroni-Like Correction
- This is the look-elsewhere effect.
This sourceNames the multiple-search penalty from finding a local excess anywhere in a scanned range as the look-elsewhere effect.
- This is the look-elsewhere effect.
- Multiple-Testing Holdout Check
- The concept it defends against — that the most extreme of many simultaneous comparisons is expected to look significant — is the multiple-comparisons or look-elsewhere effect.
This sourceDefines the look-elsewhere effect: when many locations are searched, a locally extreme fluctuation must be adjusted for the probability of seeing such an excess anywhere in the search range.
- The concept it defends against — that the most extreme of many simultaneous comparisons is expected to look significant — is the multiple-comparisons or look-elsewhere effect.
- Observation Warrant Ladder
- Even a rigorous bar can mislead — particle physics fixed a demanding five-sigma threshold for announcing a discovery,
This sourceExplains the five-sigma discovery convention and why a local excess must be corrected for the look-elsewhere effect.
- Even a rigorous bar can mislead — particle physics fixed a demanding five-sigma threshold for announcing a discovery,
- Signal/Noise Review
- Human review imports human bias: reviewers who know the desired answer find reasons to accept it, and the more candidates are scanned, the more chance-shaped artifacts appear — the look-elsewhere effect.
This sourceExplains the look-elsewhere effect, in which searching across more candidate locations increases the chance of finding a fluctuation that appears locally significant.
- Human review imports human bias: reviewers who know the desired answer find reasons to accept it, and the more candidates are scanned, the more chance-shaped artifacts appear — the look-elsewhere effect.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 5 citations: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
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