An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts.¶
Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.
Cited by¶
9 citations across 9 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Conformity
- Prediction markets, Delphi panels, and structured estimation protocols deliberately suppress conformity to recover independent signal: Delphi panels keep experts anonymous and iterate in writing precisely so that no participant's revised estimate is bent by deference to a senior voice, restoring the independence that naive group discussion destroys.
This sourceIntroduces the Delphi method, using anonymity and iterated written estimation to suppress conformity and recover independent expert signal. Live-verified (INFORMS).
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
The abstract establishes the Delphi design — an iterated series of written questionnaires aimed at the most reliable expert consensus — but does not state anonymity or the suppression of deference to senior voices.
“which was devised in order to obtain the most reliable opinion consensus of a group of experts by subjecting them to a series of questionnaires in depth interspersed with controlled opinion feedback”
- Prediction markets, Delphi panels, and structured estimation protocols deliberately suppress conformity to recover independent signal: Delphi panels keep experts anonymous and iterate in writing precisely so that no participant's revised estimate is bent by deference to a senior voice, restoring the independence that naive group discussion destroys.
- Delphi Method
- The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s and early 1960s by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and others (with Theodore Gordon contributing substantially to the Long-Range Forecasting Study)
This sourceGordon, Theodore J. and Olaf Helmer. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1964. RAND memorandum RM-2982. Foundational establishment of the Delphi method at RAND in the late 1950s and early 1960s for U.S. Air Force technological-forecasting applications.
- The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s and early 1960s by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and others (with Theodore Gordon contributing substantially to the Long-Range Forecasting Study)
Mechanisms¶
- Blind Independent Vote Reset
- Structured anonymous re-rounds are a well-proven way to aggregate judgment while blunting dominance and bandwagon effects.
This sourceReports a Delphi process using successive expert questionnaires and controlled feedback to seek reliable group consensus.
- Structured anonymous re-rounds are a well-proven way to aggregate judgment while blunting dominance and bandwagon effects.
- Cross-Impact Expert Elicitation
- Estimates are collected anonymously, the spread is fed back, and experts revise once — a Delphi-style iteration
This sourceUses independent expert judgments with controlled aggregate feedback and revision to limit dominant-person influence.
- Estimates are collected anonymously, the spread is fed back, and experts revise once — a Delphi-style iteration
- Crowd Estimation Protocol
- The guarding discipline is to elicit before any discussion and to seed calibration questions, the structured-anonymity logic behind the Delphi method.
This sourceUses separated questionnaires followed by controlled feedback to elicit and refine expert estimates without face-to-face discussion.
- The guarding discipline is to elicit before any discussion and to seed calibration questions, the structured-anonymity logic behind the Delphi method.
- Delphi Round with Visibility Lag
- Its strength is a disciplined path to a shared estimate under uncertainty, which is why the Delphi method became a standard tool for expert forecasting where direct data is thin.
This sourcePresents Delphi as an iterative expert-judgment method using successive questionnaires and controlled feedback for forecasting under uncertainty.
- Its strength is a disciplined path to a shared estimate under uncertainty, which is why the Delphi method became a standard tool for expert forecasting where direct data is thin.
- Delphi Study
- Its strength is that it is the full loop
This sourceUses iterative anonymous questionnaires with controlled feedback so participants can reconsider their judgments.
- Its strength is that it is the full loop
- Expert Disagreement Calibration
- Structured elicitation — asking each expert to commit before comparing, sometimes across rounds — keeps the divergence honest rather than herded.
This sourceIntroduces Delphi as repeated expert questionnaires with controlled feedback between rounds.
- Structured elicitation — asking each expert to commit before comparing, sometimes across rounds — keeps the divergence honest rather than herded.
- Ontology Review Workshop
- Following the structured, iterative reconciliation logic of the Delphi method,
This sourceIntroduces Delphi as an iterative expert-questionnaire process with controlled feedback aimed at convergence.
- Following the structured, iterative reconciliation logic of the Delphi method,
Verification¶
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