An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts.¶
Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.
Cited by¶
3 citations across 3 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Conformity
- Prediction markets, Delphi panels, and structured estimation protocols deliberately suppress conformity to recover independent signal: Delphi panels keep experts anonymous and iterate in writing precisely so that no participant's revised estimate is bent by deference to a senior voice, restoring the independence that naive group discussion destroys.
This sourceIntroduces the Delphi method, using anonymity and iterated written estimation to suppress conformity and recover independent expert signal — supports the structured-estimation design claim. Live-verified (INFORMS).
- Prediction markets, Delphi panels, and structured estimation protocols deliberately suppress conformity to recover independent signal: Delphi panels keep experts anonymous and iterate in writing precisely so that no participant's revised estimate is bent by deference to a senior voice, restoring the independence that naive group discussion destroys.
- Delphi Method
- The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s and early 1960s by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and others (with Theodore Gordon contributing substantially to the Long-Range Forecasting Study)
This sourceGordon, Theodore J. and Olaf Helmer. Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1964. RAND memorandum RM-2982. Foundational establishment of the Delphi method at RAND in the late 1950s and early 1960s for U.S. Air Force technological-forecasting applications.
- The Delphi method was developed at the RAND Corporation in the late 1950s and early 1960s by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and others (with Theodore Gordon contributing substantially to the Long-Range Forecasting Study)
Mechanisms¶
- Cross-Impact Expert Elicitation
- Estimates are collected anonymously, the spread is fed back, and experts revise once — a Delphi-style iteration
This sourceUses independent expert judgments with controlled aggregate feedback and revision to limit dominant-person influence.
- Estimates are collected anonymously, the spread is fed back, and experts revise once — a Delphi-style iteration
Verification¶
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