The Green Book: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government¶
Treasury, H. (2003). The Green Book: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government: Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government.
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Primes¶
- Planning Fallacy
- Calibration training with explicit feedback yields real but slow and partial gains, since the bias is structural enough to resist individual-level fixes. Independent estimators who are not the executors are less committed to the simulation and so less prone to inside-view substitution — an organizational rather than individual move. Empirical buffers scale the inside-view estimate by the historical ratio of realized-to-estimated for the reference class, of which folk rules ("multiply the estimate by π," "double the cooking time") are rough applications. Optimism-bias uplift embeds these adjustments into regulation, requiring major-project applications to add empirically derived uplift factors.
This sourceMandates empirically derived optimism-bias uplift factors on major-project cost and time estimates.
- Calibration training with explicit feedback yields real but slow and partial gains, since the bias is structural enough to resist individual-level fixes. Independent estimators who are not the executors are less committed to the simulation and so less prone to inside-view substitution — an organizational rather than individual move. Empirical buffers scale the inside-view estimate by the historical ratio of realized-to-estimated for the reference class, of which folk rules ("multiply the estimate by π," "double the cooking time") are rough applications. Optimism-bias uplift embeds these adjustments into regulation, requiring major-project applications to add empirically derived uplift factors.
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