The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction¶
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., & Brunet, G. (2015). The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction. Nature, 525(7567), 47-55.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Chaos
- in dissipative systems or a region of chaotic motion in conservative ones. Meteorology and climate → the rule is the (truncated, parameterized) atmospheric / oceanic / coupled-system dynamical equations; the state space is the discretized field of temperature, pressure, humidity, velocity; sensitive dependence sets the ~10–14 day deterministic forecast horizon, a limit Bauer, Thorpe, and Brunet (2015) survey across the modern numerical weather prediction era
This sourceSurveys the multi-decade improvement of NWP skill (about one day of useful forecast horizon gained per decade) and frames the ~10–14 day deterministic predictability limit as the chaos-imposed boundary on synoptic-scale forecasts.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
Abstract supports that NWP skill gains about a day of lead time per decade and now reaches a week ahead; it does not state the ~10-14 day sensitive-dependence limit.
“The outputs from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are pervasive throughout society, and now provide skillful forecasts a week into the future. Looking back several decades, the increase in forecasting accuracy has been remarkable, but it was gradual, amounting to about an extra day of skillful forecast lead time per decade.”
- in dissipative systems or a region of chaotic motion in conservative ones. Meteorology and climate → the rule is the (truncated, parameterized) atmospheric / oceanic / coupled-system dynamical equations; the state space is the discretized field of temperature, pressure, humidity, velocity; sensitive dependence sets the ~10–14 day deterministic forecast horizon, a limit Bauer, Thorpe, and Brunet (2015) survey across the modern numerical weather prediction era
Verification¶
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Registry ID ref:6d274129ee62 · see in the full table