Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem¶
Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem: A Modelling Problem. Safety Science, 27(2), 2-3.
Cited by¶
3 citations across 3 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Coupling
- Distinguish coupling from Feedback. Not correlation. Correlation between observed variables can arise from common cause, spurious coincidence, or actual coupling; calling any correlated variables "coupled" without mechanism-level evidence is the classic failure mode
This sourceTreats risk as a cross-level control problem demanding mechanism-level (functional) models rather than surface decomposition or correlation; supports the not-correlation claim (coupling requires an identified channel, not mere covariation).
- Distinguish coupling from Feedback. Not correlation. Correlation between observed variables can arise from common cause, spurious coincidence, or actual coupling; calling any correlated variables "coupled" without mechanism-level evidence is the classic failure mode
- Normalization of Deviance
- Second, the rate of drift is bounded strictly by the frequency of catastrophic feedback; if the system has long latencies between deviation and failure, because the deviation is necessary-but-not-sufficient for harm, the drift can run for years before colliding with the real envelope.
This sourceModels how socio-technical systems migrate toward the boundary of safe operation under efficiency and least-effort gradients, with the drift surfacing as an accident only when the (often irreversibly crossed) boundary is reached; supports the claim that drift rate is governed by how often and how quickly catastrophic feedback arrives.
- Second, the rate of drift is bounded strictly by the frequency of catastrophic feedback; if the system has long latencies between deviation and failure, because the deviation is necessary-but-not-sufficient for harm, the drift can run for years before colliding with the real envelope.
Mechanisms¶
- Safeguard Bypass Probe
- The output reframes the problem from "operators are careless" to "the guard obstructs a task it never accounted for, and the bypass is the predictable result" — a migration toward the boundary of safe operation driven by production pressure.
This sourceModels migration toward the boundary of safe performance under production and cost-effectiveness pressure.
- The output reframes the problem from "operators are careless" to "the guard obstructs a task it never accounted for, and the bypass is the predictable result" — a migration toward the boundary of safe operation driven by production pressure.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. Neither this nor any other of the 3 citations of this work carries a recorded support check.
Was it audited? Yes. A second, independent pass read the citation against the article text and recorded a verdict.
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Registry ID ref:6d473df91335 · see in the full table