Risk Management in a Dynamic Society

Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk Management in a Dynamic Society: A Modelling Problem. Safety Science, 27(2), 2-3.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1997

DOI

10.1016/s0925-7535(97)00052-0

Link

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00052-0

Cited from

engineering_design, systems_cybernetics

Cited by

2 citations across 2 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Coupling
  • Distinguish coupling from feedback. Not correlation. Correlation between observed variables can arise from common cause, spurious coincidence, or actual coupling; calling any correlated variables "coupled" without mechanism-level evidence is the classic failure mode

    This sourceTreats risk as a cross-level control problem demanding mechanism-level (functional) models rather than surface decomposition or correlation; supports the not-correlation claim (coupling requires an identified channel, not mere covariation).

• Normalization of Deviance
  • Second, the rate of drift is bounded strictly by the frequency of catastrophic feedback; if the system has long latencies between deviation and failure, because the deviation is necessary-but-not-sufficient for harm, the drift can run for years before colliding with the real envelope.

    This sourceModels how socio-technical systems migrate toward the boundary of safe operation under efficiency and least-effort gradients, with the drift surfacing as an accident only when the (often irreversibly crossed) boundary is reached; supports the claim that drift rate is governed by how often and how quickly catastrophic feedback arrives.

Verification

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