The optimizer's curse

Smith, J. E., & Winkler, R. L. (2006). The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Science, 52(3), 311-322.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2006

Volume

52

Issue

3

Pages

311-322

DOI registrant

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences

Link

https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451 not authoritativefound

Cited from

information_theory

Cited by

1 citation across 1 artifact.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Winner's Curse
  • Recognizing these as instances of one structure lets an insight earned in auction theory be redeployed in statistics, sports analytics, or research methodology.

    This sourceDecision-analytic generalization showing the same selection-on-the-maximum logic produces postdecision disappointment whenever the highest-scored option is chosen from noisy estimates, unifying the winner's curse with regression to the mean and publication bias and prescribing Bayesian shrinkage as the remedy.

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