Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning¶
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Domain-specific¶
- Attribute Substitution
- The "Linda problem" (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983) is the textbook demonstration Kahneman and Frederick later analysed as attribute substitution.
This sourceReports systematic violations of the conjunction rule in judgments of both lay people and experts, a conjunction being judged more probable than one of its constituents.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
“The representativeness and availability heuristics therefore can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents.”
- The "Linda problem" (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983) is the textbook demonstration Kahneman and Frederick later analysed as attribute substitution.
- Conjunction Fallacy
- Tversky and Kahneman (1983) demonstrated it with the Linda problem: subjects given a description matching the stereotype of a politically engaged feminist ranked "Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement" as more probable than "Linda is a bank teller," even though the conjunction is a strict logical subset of the latter
This sourceThe Linda problem, in which most subjects judged 'bank teller and active in the feminist movement' more probable than 'bank teller', violating the conjunction rule. Persistence of conjunction violations among statistically trained graduate students and among internists and professional forecasters judging within their fields, and in a betting format at a reduced rate. Conjunction violations in internists' medical judgments, in suspicion of criminal acts, and in professional political forecasts. The Linda results: 85% of 142 undergraduates in the two-option version, and 85-90% of naive, informed and sophisticated groups in the ranking version, rated the conjunction above its constituent. The study of 115 participants at the Second International Congress on Forecasting (Istanbul, July 1982). Forecasters' estimates were significantly higher for invasion-plus-suspension than for suspension alone.
SupportedVerified against the source
- Tversky and Kahneman (1983) demonstrated it with the Linda problem: subjects given a description matching the stereotype of a politically engaged feminist ranked "Linda is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement" as more probable than "Linda is a bank teller," even though the conjunction is a strict logical subset of the latter
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