Expert opinion in risk analysis and the elicitation of subjective probabilities¶
Hora, S. C., & Iman, R. L. (1989). Expert opinion in risk analysis and the elicitation of subjective probabilities. Risk Analysis and Decision Making.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Uncertainty
- The essential commitment is to distinguish what is known from what is not known, and — within the unknown — to separate kinds of unknowing that call for different responses: aleatoric uncertainty (noise that cannot be reduced by more information), epistemic uncertainty (ignorance that can be reduced), and deep uncertainty (unknown unknowns, where even the space of possibilities is not fully characterized).
This sourceHora aleatory vs. epistemic uncertainty decomposition.
- The essential commitment is to distinguish what is known from what is not known, and — within the unknown — to separate kinds of unknowing that call for different responses: aleatoric uncertainty (noise that cannot be reduced by more information), epistemic uncertainty (ignorance that can be reduced), and deep uncertainty (unknown unknowns, where even the space of possibilities is not fully characterized).
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