Interpretation of Statistical Evidence in Criminal Trials¶
Thompson, W. C., & Schumann, E. L. (1987). Interpretation of Statistical Evidence in Criminal Trials: The Prosecutor's Fallacy and the Defense Attorney's Fallacy. Law and Human Behavior, 11(3), 167-187.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Conditional Probability
- Medical diagnosis. \(P(\text{disease}\mid\text{symptom})\) versus \(P(\text{symptom}\mid\text{disease})\) — the direction matters enormously, and confusing them is the canonical base-rate-neglect error; likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities rest on conditioning. Legal evidence. The probative force of evidence is structurally \(P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{guilt}) / P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{innocence})\), and conflating \(P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{innocence})\) with \(P(\text{innocence}\mid\text{evidence})\) is the prosecutor's fallacy.
This sourceNames and analyzes the prosecutor's fallacy — conflating P(evidence|innocence) with P(innocence|evidence).
- Medical diagnosis. \(P(\text{disease}\mid\text{symptom})\) versus \(P(\text{symptom}\mid\text{disease})\) — the direction matters enormously, and confusing them is the canonical base-rate-neglect error; likelihood ratios and post-test probabilities rest on conditioning. Legal evidence. The probative force of evidence is structurally \(P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{guilt}) / P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{innocence})\), and conflating \(P(\text{evidence}\mid\text{innocence})\) with \(P(\text{innocence}\mid\text{evidence})\) is the prosecutor's fallacy.
- False Positive Paradox
- In forensic science, DNA random-match and fingerprint statistics mislead unless anchored to the base rate of the relevant suspect pool.
This sourceCoins the 'prosecutor's fallacy' and shows random-match statistics mislead unless anchored to the base rate of the relevant suspect pool, supporting the forensic-science use.
- In forensic science, DNA random-match and fingerprint statistics mislead unless anchored to the base rate of the relevant suspect pool.
Verification¶
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