On the Psychology of Prediction¶
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251.
Cited by¶
3 citations across 3 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Relevance Substitution
- The evaluative target is a hard question — "what is the probability that this described person is a librarian rather than a farmer?" — whose correct evaluation runs through a relevant inference channel (base rates for the two occupations, combined with diagnostic evidence).
This sourceDemonstrates the Tom-W / base-rate problem where representativeness (similarity-to-stereotype) substitutes for base-rate-weighted probability and base rates are neglected.
- The evaluative target is a hard question — "what is the probability that this described person is a librarian rather than a farmer?" — whose correct evaluation runs through a relevant inference channel (base rates for the two occupations, combined with diagnostic evidence).
Mechanisms¶
- Bayesian Diagnosis
- The classic misuse is base-rate neglect — reading the test's accuracy as if it were the probability of the condition and ignoring how rare the condition is
This sourceShows that intuitive predictions can be largely insensitive to prior outcome probabilities—the pattern known as base-rate neglect.
- The classic misuse is base-rate neglect — reading the test's accuracy as if it were the probability of the condition and ignoring how rare the condition is
- Bayesian-Style Update Session
- Fold in the base rate. Anchor on how common the belief's truth is at baseline, guarding against base-rate neglect
This sourceDocuments base-rate neglect as intuitive prediction that is insensitive to prior probabilities.
- Fold in the base rate. Anchor on how common the belief's truth is at baseline, guarding against base-rate neglect
Verification¶
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