The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit¶
Bernanke, B. S. (2005). The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Domain-specific¶
- Paradox of Thrift
- Recession dynamics — synchronized household precautionary saving deepening a contraction, the 2008–09 US/Eurozone rise in saving rates read as the paradox activating. Liquidity-trap conditions — Japan's lost decade and any zero-lower-bound setting, where the broken interest-rate channel makes the paradox bite maximally. Sovereign austerity / fiscal multipliers — coordinated fiscal consolidations contracting output by larger-than-forecast multipliers (Blanchard and Leigh 2013, the "self-defeating austerity" debate). Balance-sheet recessions — corporate-sector deleveraging (Koo) producing the same demand contraction at the firm scale. Global imbalances — Bernanke's "saving glut" framing, in which current-account surpluses in emerging Asia and the oil exporters raise the global supply of saving relative to desired investment and press down on world real interest rates
This sourceThe saving-glut framing in the lecture's own terms: surpluses in the developing world, which swung from a collective deficit of $88 billion in 1996 to a surplus of $205 billion in 2003, and among oil exporters in the Middle East, Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela, raise the global supply of saving relative to desired investment, so the real rate of interest falls to equilibrate the market for global saving.
SupportedVerified against the source
- Recession dynamics — synchronized household precautionary saving deepening a contraction, the 2008–09 US/Eurozone rise in saving rates read as the paradox activating. Liquidity-trap conditions — Japan's lost decade and any zero-lower-bound setting, where the broken interest-rate channel makes the paradox bite maximally. Sovereign austerity / fiscal multipliers — coordinated fiscal consolidations contracting output by larger-than-forecast multipliers (Blanchard and Leigh 2013, the "self-defeating austerity" debate). Balance-sheet recessions — corporate-sector deleveraging (Koo) producing the same demand contraction at the firm scale. Global imbalances — Bernanke's "saving glut" framing, in which current-account surpluses in emerging Asia and the oil exporters raise the global supply of saving relative to desired investment and press down on world real interest rates
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