Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (second edition)¶
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. (2013). Long-term evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (second edition). Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Government of Japan.
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Domain-specific¶
- Seismic Gap
- Because decades of elapsed time have accumulated strain, Japan's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion assigns a high 30-year probability to the next great Nankai earthquake — 60–70% in its 2013 second-edition long-term evaluation, base date 1 January 2013
This sourceThe cited evaluation's own figure: a 30-year probability of 60-70% for the next great Nankai Trough earthquake at base date 1 January 2013, computed with a Brownian-passage-time renewal model on a time-predictable basis and a standard recurrence interval of 88.2 years, with the reliability of the underlying model recorded as unknown.
SupportedVerified against the source
- Because decades of elapsed time have accumulated strain, Japan's Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion assigns a high 30-year probability to the next great Nankai earthquake — 60–70% in its 2013 second-edition long-term evaluation, base date 1 January 2013
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