Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases¶
Belik, V., Geisel, T., & Brockmann, D. (2011). Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases. Physical Review X.
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Primes¶
- Neighborhood
- The epidemiology team runs the same shape for contact tracing: focal point (an index case), proximity structure (physical co-location), radius (a seven-day, two-metre window), window (recent contacts), read-off (quarantine recommendation) — and when transmission jumps via long-distance air travel, the systematic under-prediction is the signal that the locality assumption failed, exactly as the prime forecasts, prompting a switch to a mobility-network proximity structure.
This sourceShows that long-distance human mobility breaks the local (neighborhood-bounded) wave picture of epidemic spread, so contact-proximity reasoning systematically under-predicts and must be replaced by a mobility-network proximity structure.
- The epidemiology team runs the same shape for contact tracing: focal point (an index case), proximity structure (physical co-location), radius (a seven-day, two-metre window), window (recent contacts), read-off (quarantine recommendation) — and when transmission jumps via long-distance air travel, the systematic under-prediction is the signal that the locality assumption failed, exactly as the prime forecasts, prompting a switch to a mobility-network proximity structure.
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