Climate and Floods: Role of Non-Stationarity¶
Pelletier, J. D. (1999). Climate and Floods: Role of Non-Stationarity: Role of Non-Stationarity," in *Improving American River Flood Frequency Analyses. Improving American River Flood Frequency Analyses.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Near-Miss Normalization
- In climate and infrastructure operations, floods and heat events within historical envelopes become baseline despite a shifting climate, so the next event tests a new baseline against pre-shift design assumptions.
This sourceEstablishes that flood-frequency design assumptions built on a stationary historical envelope systematically underestimate risk under a shifting climate, so within-historical-envelope events get re-baselined while design lags the hazard.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
The chapter shows flood design resting on a stationary historical-record assumption that a changing climate undermines; it does not discuss heat or near-miss events becoming the baseline.
“Flood frequency analysis, as traditionally practiced, is marked by an assumption that annual maximum floods conform to a stationary, independent, identically distributed random process.”
- In climate and infrastructure operations, floods and heat events within historical envelopes become baseline despite a shifting climate, so the next event tests a new baseline against pre-shift design assumptions.
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