Communicating Uncertainty in Policy Analysis¶
Manski, C. F. (2019). Communicating Uncertainty in Policy Analysis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(16), 7634-7641.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Differential Decay
- Measurement and uncertainty: a point estimate propagates in policy citation while its confidence interval fades, so "between 2 and 12" becomes "7."
This sourcePoint predictions propagate in policy discourse while their interval/uncertainty bands are dropped, conveying false certainty.
Supported in partVerified against the publisher's abstract
Manski's own abstract states the claim's frame - point predictions are routine and expressions of uncertainty rare - but carries no citation-chain mechanism and no "between 2 and 12 becomes 7" illustration.
“A prevalent practice has been to report policy analysis with incredible certitude. That is, exact predictions of policy outcomes are routine, while expressions of uncertainty are rare.”
- Measurement and uncertainty: a point estimate propagates in policy citation while its confidence interval fades, so "between 2 and 12" becomes "7."
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 1 citation: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:874a6b25c028 · see in the full table