Updating Catastrophe Models to Today's Climate – An Application of a Large Ensemble Approach to Extreme Rainfall.¶
Lang, A., & Poschlod, B. (2024). Updating Catastrophe Models to Today's Climate – An Application of a Large Ensemble Approach to Extreme Rainfall. Climate Risk Management, 44.
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Primes¶
- Extrapolation Beyond Sampled Regime
- Parametric insurance, forecasting, and engineering qualification: catastrophe-model triggers, time-series prediction intervals, and qualification certificates all carry in-sample confidence machinery that cannot encode that the underlying regime has moved.
This sourceShows catastrophe models built on stationary historical hazard frequencies systematically misstate present risk as the underlying climate regime shifts (e.g., rising 50-year rainfall return levels), so in-sample confidence machinery cannot encode that the regime has moved.
- Parametric insurance, forecasting, and engineering qualification: catastrophe-model triggers, time-series prediction intervals, and qualification certificates all carry in-sample confidence machinery that cannot encode that the underlying regime has moved.
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