Regression to the Mean

Barnett, A. G. (2005). Regression to the Mean: What It Is and How to Deal with It. International Journal of Epidemiology, 34(1), 215-220.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2005

DOI

10.1093/ije/dyh299

Link

https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyh299

Cited from

statistics_experimental_design

Cited by

3 citations across 3 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Regression to the Mean
  • Regression to the mean is the extreme-values-move-toward-average-on-re-measurement principle that observations selected for having extreme values on an initial measurement will, on a subsequent measurement of the same or a related variable, tend to be less extreme — closer to the overall mean of the distribution

Mechanisms

• Closed-State Capacity Challenge Panel
  • Its central failure mode is mistaking an apparent floor for a real one: a plateau measured at an unlucky low point can rebound on its own,

    This sourceExplains that an unusually low measurement can be followed by a value nearer the population mean on repeat measurement even without a real change.

• Matched-Pair Randomization
  • Broken pairs are its signature failure: deleting the survivors of broken pairs after the fact is a quiet selection bias, and matching on a single noisy extreme baseline invites regression to the mean to masquerade as an effect

    This sourceShows that selection on an extreme, error-prone baseline can make regression to the mean resemble a treatment effect.

Verification

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Registry ID ref:8a6884bba66a · see in the full table