What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?¶
Cox. (2008). What's Wrong with Risk Matrices?. Risk Analysis, 28(2), 497-512.
Cited by¶
8 citations across 8 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Aligned Gap Heatmap
- This is the risk-heat-map idea applied to serial defense — and it inherits both the power and the danger of heat maps as decision aids
This sourceShows that risk matrices can compress unlike risks, reverse rankings, and in some conditions produce worse-than-random decisions.
- This is the risk-heat-map idea applied to serial defense — and it inherits both the power and the danger of heat maps as decision aids
- Impact Heat Map
- … failure mode is that heat maps compress, and compression misleads: binning hides gradients, and a two-dimensional color cannot faithfully carry severity, probability, and reversibility at once without category errors — cells with very different underlying risk can end up the same shade, lending false confidence.
This sourceShows that qualitative risk matrices compress quantitatively different risks into the same rating, lose resolution, and can mislead decisions.
- … failure mode is that heat maps compress, and compression misleads: binning hides gradients, and a two-dimensional color cannot faithfully carry severity, probability, and reversibility at once without category errors — cells with very different underlying risk can end up the same shade, lending false confidence.
- Incident Severity Matrix
- Its failure mode is the coarse-bin trap — a small grid can drop a rare catastrophe and a frequent nuisance into the same cell, so the grade flatters or understates the real risk; this is the well-known limitation of any risk matrix that compresses a continuous hazard into a few boxes.
This sourceShows that coarse risk matrices compress quantitatively different hazards into the same cells and can misrank their true risk.
- Its failure mode is the coarse-bin trap — a small grid can drop a rare catastrophe and a frequent nuisance into the same cell, so the grade flatters or understates the real risk; this is the well-known limitation of any risk matrix that compresses a continuous hazard into a few boxes.
- Response Matrix
- Its failure mode is the well-documented flaw of any such grid: distinct cases get compressed into the same cell, so a matrix can assign identical treatment to situations that differ materially while lending the whole thing a false air of objectivity.
This sourceShows that typical risk matrices can compress quantitatively different risks into the same rating and thereby misdirect treatment decisions.
- Its failure mode is the well-documented flaw of any such grid: distinct cases get compressed into the same cell, so a matrix can assign identical treatment to situations that differ materially while lending the whole thing a false air of objectivity.
- Risk-Band Treatment Matrix
- Worse, poorly constructed matrices can rank pairs of cases worse than chance — a documented hazard of coarse risk grids.
This sourceShows that some risk matrices can reverse risk rankings and yield worse-than-random decisions.
- Worse, poorly constructed matrices can rank pairs of cases worse than chance — a documented hazard of coarse risk grids.
- Risk Matrix
- Because the axes are qualitative bands, two quantitatively very different risks can land in the same cell and look identical, and — depending on how the bands and aggregation rule are drawn — the grid can even rank some risks in the wrong order relative to a proper quantitative assessment.
This sourceDocuments the axes are qualitative bands; two quantitatively very different risks can land in the same cell and look identical; depending on how the bands and aggregation rule are drawn; the grid can even rank some risks in the wrong order relative to a proper quantitative assessment.
- Because the axes are qualitative bands, two quantitatively very different risks can land in the same cell and look identical, and — depending on how the bands and aggregation rule are drawn — the grid can even rank some risks in the wrong order relative to a proper quantitative assessment.
- Risk Register
- And its likelihood/impact scores are easily run backwards — scored to justify a go decision already made rather than to test one; coarse qualitative matrices can even mis-rank risks so that a "medium" hides a genuinely worse case than a "high."
This sourceShows that coarse risk matrices can assign higher ratings to smaller risks and identical ratings to quantitatively different risks.
- And its likelihood/impact scores are easily run backwards — scored to justify a go decision already made rather than to test one; coarse qualitative matrices can even mis-rank risks so that a "medium" hides a genuinely worse case than a "high."
- Scenario Probability Table
- Compressing risk into a few bands can genuinely mis-rank scenarios — a well-documented failure of risk matrices, where two very different risks land in the same cell and a lower risk can even be scored above a higher one.
This sourceRisk matrices can compress quantitatively different risks into one cell and can rank a smaller risk above a larger one.
- Compressing risk into a few bands can genuinely mis-rank scenarios — a well-documented failure of risk matrices, where two very different risks land in the same cell and a lower risk can even be scored above a higher one.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. Neither this nor any other of the 8 citations of this work carries a recorded support check.
Was it audited? Yes. A second, independent pass read the citation against the article text and recorded a verdict.
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