Factors That Make an Infectious Disease Outbreak Controllable.¶
Fraser, C., Riley, S., Anderson, R. M., & Ferguson, N. M. (2004). Factors That Make an Infectious Disease Outbreak Controllable. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(16), 6146-6151.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Response-vs-Propagation Race
- Public-health outbreak response. Contact tracing against pathogen generation time: tracing wins against slow-generation diseases and loses against fast-generation or pre-symptomatic ones.
This sourceShows outbreak controllability by contact tracing turns on the comparison of the response timescale against the generation interval and the proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
Fraser et al. show tracing success hinges on presymptomatic transmission (theta) and R0; fast-moving influenza is hard to trace, but generation time itself is not the stated determinant.
“quarantining and contact tracing for influenza would probably be unfeasible because of the very short incubation (2 days) and infectious (3–4 days) periods of that disease”
- Public-health outbreak response. Contact tracing against pathogen generation time: tracing wins against slow-generation diseases and loses against fast-generation or pre-symptomatic ones.
Domain-specific¶
- Contact-Tracing Delay
- Fraser, Riley, Anderson, and Ferguson formalized exactly this in PNAS (2004, "Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable"), showing controllability is governed by R₀ together with the fraction of transmission occurring before symptoms
This sourceFormalises in a mathematical model that the success of isolation plus contact tracing is determined as much by the proportion of transmission occurring before symptom onset (or asymptomatically) as by the reproductive number R0.
SupportedVerified against the publisher's abstract
“The aim of this study is to identify general properties of emerging infectious agents that determine the likely success of two simple public health measures in controlling outbreaks”
- Fraser, Riley, Anderson, and Ferguson formalized exactly this in PNAS (2004, "Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable"), showing controllability is governed by R₀ together with the fraction of transmission occurring before symptoms
Verification¶
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