Strong Inference¶
Platt, J. R. (1964). Strong Inference: Certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others. Science, 146(3642), 347-353.
Cited by¶
6 citations across 6 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Domain-specific¶
- Riskiest Assumption Test
- Military and operational planning (red-teaming, pre-mortem) — rehearsals and intelligence collection that test the riskiest assumption — usually about adversary response, terrain, or coalition reliability — before committing the maneuver. Engineering and aerospace (critical-path testing) — under the technology-readiness-level framework, targeting the assumption whose failure would invalidate the design before integration, rather than the assumption easiest to test. Experimental science (Platt's strong inference) — designing the experiment that maximally discriminates between consequential competing hypotheses, not the one most likely to "work."
This sourcePlatt's strong inference as devising alternative hypotheses and a crucial experiment designed, as nearly as possible, to exclude one or more of them.
Supported in partVerified against a saved copy of the source
“which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses”
- Military and operational planning (red-teaming, pre-mortem) — rehearsals and intelligence collection that test the riskiest assumption — usually about adversary response, terrain, or coalition reliability — before committing the maneuver. Engineering and aerospace (critical-path testing) — under the technology-readiness-level framework, targeting the assumption whose failure would invalidate the design before integration, rather than the assumption easiest to test. Experimental science (Platt's strong inference) — designing the experiment that maximally discriminates between consequential competing hypotheses, not the one most likely to "work."
Mechanisms¶
- Experience Prediction Matrix
- This is the practical logic of the crucial experiment — a single observation on which competing accounts make opposite predictions.
This sourceDefines strong inference through alternative hypotheses and crucial experiments whose possible outcomes discriminate among them.
- This is the practical logic of the crucial experiment — a single observation on which competing accounts make opposite predictions.
- Prototype Tournament
- The discipline that keeps it honest is to specify the discriminating question before building, to design the test to threaten the front-runner rather than to confirm it,
This sourceAdvocates formulating multiple hypotheses and devising crucial experiments in advance whose outcomes can exclude competing explanations rather than merely confirm a favorite.
- The discipline that keeps it honest is to specify the discriminating question before building, to design the test to threaten the front-runner rather than to confirm it,
- Red-Team Case Search
- Its strength is structural rather than technical: by relocating the disconfirmation incentive to someone who benefits from the counterexample, it counters the confirmation bias
This sourceAdvocates competing hypotheses and crucial tests designed to exclude alternatives, countering one-hypothesis confirmation.
- Its strength is structural rather than technical: by relocating the disconfirmation incentive to someone who benefits from the counterexample, it counters the confirmation bias
- Research Hypothesis Elimination
- Its strength is that it makes explanations compete on evidence rather than prestige, and one crucial test can clear away several rivals at once — the engine of strong inference.
This sourceDefines strong inference as competing alternative hypotheses through crucial tests whose outcomes exclude one or more rivals, followed by repeated clean tests.
- Its strength is that it makes explanations compete on evidence rather than prestige, and one crucial test can clear away several rivals at once — the engine of strong inference.
- Rival Explanation Elimination Table
- The discipline that guards against this is to specify each rival's disconfirming test before looking, in the spirit of strong inference,
This sourceStrong inference keeps alternative hypotheses explicit, uses crucial tests to exclude them, and iteratively refines the possibilities that remain.
- The discipline that guards against this is to specify each rival's disconfirming test before looking, in the spirit of strong inference,
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Read against the text for 1 of 6 citations: 1 supported in part. Each verdict is shown under its citation below, with what in the work backs the sentence.
Was it audited? Yes. A second, independent pass read the citation against the article text and recorded a verdict.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
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