Knowing with Certainty¶
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with Certainty: The Appropriateness of Extreme Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3(4), 552-564.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Confidence Bucket Review
- Because it groups by stated label, it is the natural home for catching the overconfidence effect — the well-documented tendency for high-confidence judgments to outrun their hit rate.
This sourceFinds that stated confidence systematically exceeded observed accuracy, including judgments made with extreme certainty.
- Because it groups by stated label, it is the natural home for catching the overconfidence effect — the well-documented tendency for high-confidence judgments to outrun their hit rate.
Verification¶
Does it exist? Confirmed. This work's DOI resolves to a registered record, which fixes its identity. That is all it fixes.
Does it back the claim? Not recorded. The single citation of this work carries no recorded support check.
Support is checked per citation rather than per work — the same source can be cited soundly in one article and wrongly in another. Per-citation recording began recently, so a citation with no recorded check is a gap in the record rather than evidence it went unchecked.
See how references were verified.
Registry ID ref:92499fc63f6d · see in the full table