Belief in the Law of Small Numbers¶
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the Law of Small Numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76(2), 105-110.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Primes¶
- Clustering Illusion
- The pattern is dual to the gambler's-fallacy misreading (which expects more alternation than randomness provides); the clustering illusion is the false-positive end of the same gap between actual and intuited randomness.
This sourceShows people expect small samples to be more representative (and more alternating) than chance produces — the misjudgment of randomness underlying both the clustering illusion and the gambler's fallacy.
Supported in partVerified against the work's full text
Tversky and Kahneman describe the gambler's expectation that deviations in a chance sequence will self-correct, but do not name the clustering illusion or call the two dual.
“The gambler feels that the fairness of the coin entitles him to expect that any devi- ation in one direction will soon be cancelled”
- The pattern is dual to the gambler's-fallacy misreading (which expects more alternation than randomness provides); the clustering illusion is the false-positive end of the same gap between actual and intuited randomness.
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Registry ID ref:976798cda625 · see in the full table