Subjective probability¶
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3(3), 430-454.
Cited by¶
4 citations across 4 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Bayesian Updating
- This parallels cognitive models of how humans reason about uncertainty (though humans often violate Bayes' theorem
This sourceDocuments base-rate neglect and the representativeness heuristic — humans systematically violate Bayes' theorem. SUPPORTS marker 015.
- This parallels cognitive models of how humans reason about uncertainty (though humans often violate Bayes' theorem
Domain-specific¶
- Insensitivity to Sample Size
- The error lies in the judgment's weak response to that difference, not in small samples having variable outcomes.
This sourceThe printed title uses a colon after “probability”; the comma transcription preserves the complete title for reference binding.
- The error lies in the judgment's weak response to that difference, not in small samples having variable outcomes.
Mechanisms¶
- Case-Intake Script
- A good intake script is the direct guard against the representativeness heuristic, the tendency to sort a case by how much it superficially resembles a familiar type while ignoring the discriminating facts.
This sourceDescribes representativeness judgments as assessing an outcome by its similarity to a familiar generating model.
- A good intake script is the direct guard against the representativeness heuristic, the tendency to sort a case by how much it superficially resembles a familiar type while ignoring the discriminating facts.
- Representative Microcase Panel
- Its failure mode is that the representativeness heuristic cuts both ways: a small, vivid set of cases feels like the population and quietly gets treated as a count.
This sourceShows that vivid similarity to a parent population can drive representativeness judgments even when sample-size information is neglected.
- Its failure mode is that the representativeness heuristic cuts both ways: a small, vivid set of cases feels like the population and quietly gets treated as a count.
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