Prediction Markets.¶
Wolfers, J., & Zitzewitz, E. (2004). Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 107-126.
Cited by¶
2 citations across 2 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Precision Weighting
- Machine learning — mixture-of-experts, ensemble averaging weighted by validation performance, attention mechanisms interpreted as soft precision allocation across tokens, uncertainty-aware losses. Organizational decision-making — expert panels weighting members by track record, review boards weighting reviewers by calibration, intelligence assessments weighting sources by reliability ratings. Forecasting and markets — aggregation by historical accuracy or Brier score; prediction markets weighting by capital-at-risk as implicit confidence.
This sourceDescribes aggregation of dispersed information in prediction markets, with capital-at-risk as implicit confidence weighting.
- Machine learning — mixture-of-experts, ensemble averaging weighted by validation performance, attention mechanisms interpreted as soft precision allocation across tokens, uncertainty-aware losses. Organizational decision-making — expert panels weighting members by track record, review boards weighting reviewers by calibration, intelligence assessments weighting sources by reliability ratings. Forecasting and markets — aggregation by historical accuracy or Brier score; prediction markets weighting by capital-at-risk as implicit confidence.
- Wisdom of the Crowds
- Prediction markets on elections: A prediction market aggregates thousands of small trades, each reflecting a trader's partial information and private read of the polls, into a single price that tracks the true probability of an outcome better than most named pundits.
This sourceShows that prediction-market prices aggregate dispersed private trader information into accurate forecasts of uncertain events that outperform moderately sophisticated benchmarks, while noting failure modes when trading is thin or correlated.
- Prediction markets on elections: A prediction market aggregates thousands of small trades, each reflecting a trader's partial information and private read of the polls, into a single price that tracks the true probability of an outcome better than most named pundits.
Verification¶
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