Likely Gains from Market Timing¶
Sharpe, W. F. (1975). Likely Gains from Market Timing. Financial Analysts Journal, 60-69.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
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Mechanisms¶
- Market Timing Window
- Its failure mode is that exogenous cycles are notoriously hard to call, and confident timing invites the classic trap that time in the market beats timing the market — actors who try to nail the peak often misread noise for signal, enter late, or sit out the very window they waited for.
This sourceShows that successful market timing requires forecasting accuracy that is exceptionally difficult to achieve reliably.
- Its failure mode is that exogenous cycles are notoriously hard to call, and confident timing invites the classic trap that time in the market beats timing the market — actors who try to nail the peak often misread noise for signal, enter late, or sit out the very window they waited for.
Verification¶
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