Shaping the next one hundred years¶
Lempert, R. J., Popper, & Bankes, S. C. (2003). Shaping the next one hundred years: new methods for long-term strategic planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 69(2), 213-221.
Cited by¶
5 citations across 5 artifacts.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Primes¶
- Uncertainty
- In policy and futures studies, Lempert's robust decision-making approach
This sourceLempert Robust Decision Making deep uncertainty planning.
- In policy and futures studies, Lempert's robust decision-making approach
Mechanisms¶
- Robust Policy Design Review
- … bind others: by testing a rule across the populations it governs and declaring whose acceptability counts, it defends against a policy that is efficient in aggregate but harmful at the edges — the spirit of Robust Decision Making, which stress-tests policies across many plausible futures rather than optimizing one.
This sourceDescribes Robust Decision Making as searching for strategies that perform acceptably across many plausible futures rather than optimizing for one predicted future.
- … bind others: by testing a rule across the populations it governs and declaring whose acceptability counts, it defends against a policy that is efficient in aggregate but harmful at the edges — the spirit of Robust Decision Making, which stress-tests policies across many plausible futures rather than optimizing one.
- Robust Strategy Portfolio
- Its strength is that it converts scenario analysis into committed, defensible action — a clear statement of what the organization will do that is deliberately insulated from getting the forecast right, trading peak upside in any one future for durability across all of them.
This sourceIdentifies committed actions insulated from one forecast, trading peak upside in any one future for durability across futures.
- Its strength is that it converts scenario analysis into committed, defensible action — a clear statement of what the organization will do that is deliberately insulated from getting the forecast right, trading peak upside in any one future for durability across all of them.
- Scenario Ensemble
- Select for robustness. Prefer the action that avoids unacceptable outcomes across all futures (minimax-regret or satisficing), not the one that is optimal in the single most likely world.
This sourceDevelops robust decision methods that seek acceptable, low-regret performance across many plausible futures rather than optimizing for a single forecast.
- Select for robustness. Prefer the action that avoids unacceptable outcomes across all futures (minimax-regret or satisficing), not the one that is optimal in the single most likely world.
- Scenario-Informed Preparation
- Its strength is preparing honestly when the future is genuinely forked
This sourceDevelops robust decisions across many plausible futures instead of waiting for certainty or betting on a single forecast.
- Its strength is preparing honestly when the future is genuinely forked
Verification¶
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