A new vector partition of the probability score

Murphy, A. H. (1973). A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 12(4), 595-600.

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

1973

Volume

12

Issue

4

Pages

595-600

ISSN

1520-0450

DOI

10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012 did not resolve

DOI registrant

American Meteorological Society

Link

https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012%3C0595:ANVPOT%3E2.0.CO;2

Cited from

philosophy, statistics_experimental_design

Cited by

4 citations across 4 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Calibration
  • Murphy (1973) made this distinction rigorous by decomposing the Brier score into reliability, resolution, and uncertainty components, separating threshold-based validity from continuous calibration.

    This sourceDecomposes the Brier (probability) score into uncertainty, reliability (calibration), and resolution components, formalizing the distinction between threshold-based validation and continuous calibration assessment.

• Foreseeing (Prediction)
  • Modern ML systems increasingly use probabilistic forecast evaluation

    This sourceDecomposes the Brier score into reliability (calibration), resolution, and uncertainty components; supports the T6 use of probabilistic forecast evaluation to track calibration and discrimination continuously.

Domain-specific

• Scoring Rule
  • Murphy's Brier-score partition separates uncertainty, reliability, and resolution components, making the source of performance visible.

Mechanisms

• Narrative Audit Table
  • Attaching a confidence label to each revision is exactly the calibration discipline good forecasting depends on, and it keeps the table from trading one overconfident story for another.

    This sourceFormalizes calibration of confidence-labelled probability forecasts as a core forecasting discipline.

Verification

Does it exist? Not confirmed. The DOI recorded for this work did not resolve when it was last checked, so it is shown above but not linked. The citation may still be sound; the recorded identifier is not. Flagged for repair.

Does it back the claim? Not recorded. Neither this nor any other of the 4 citations of this work carries a recorded support check.

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Links previously used in the corpus

Before the registry existed this work was also linked 1 other way.

• https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1973)012<0595:ANVPOT>2.0.CO;2 ×2

Registry ID ref:a71bbe3e88ed · see in the full table