Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data

Dakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Ellison, A. M., Guttal, V., Ives, A. R., Kéfi, S., et al. (2012). Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data. PLoS ONE, 7(7).

Type

Journal article

Intellectual base

Primary research

Year

2012

DOI

10.1371/journal.pone.0041010

Link

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0041010

Cited from

physics

Cited by

2 citations across 2 artifacts.

Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.

Primes

• Criticality
  • The second is early-warning detection: critical slowing-down, rising variance, and rising autocorrelation are model-independent precursors of an approach to a second-order critical point, exploitable in ecology, finance, epidemiology, and physiology, an inferential framework Dakos et al. (2012) formalize as a methodological toolkit for time-series detection of approaching transitions.
• Tipping Points (or Phase Transitions)
  • Robust monitoring requires domain-specific signal validation and acceptance of fundamental limits to pre-crossing predictability.

    This sourceEmpirical evaluation of early-warning signal detection methods; documents inconsistency of signals across real-world systems and noise sensitivity.

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