Early Warning Signals and the Prosecutor’s Fallacy¶
Boettiger, C., & Hastings, A. (2012). Early Warning Signals and the Prosecutor’s Fallacy. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 279(1748), 4734-4739.
Cited by¶
1 citation across 1 artifact.
Each citation links to the sentence it supports in the citing article.
Mechanisms¶
- Threshold Proximity Monitoring
- The guarding discipline is to confirm any leading indicator with a second, independent signal and to hold the line that the instrument only informs; critical slowing down
This sourceShows that critical-slowing-down indicators are used as early-warning signals but can produce elevated false-positive rates when cases are selected because a transition occurred.
- The guarding discipline is to confirm any leading indicator with a second, independent signal and to hold the line that the instrument only informs; critical slowing down
Verification¶
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Does it back the claim? Not recorded. The single citation of this work carries no recorded support check.
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Registry ID ref:a8bb43527ed9 · see in the full table